Inauguration of RPC Season of World Cinema

Research and Publication Centre (RPC) in collaboration with Filmbar (on Instagram) announces the inauguration of a Season of World Cinema beginning Friday, December 16, 2022 with the first screening of Ingmar Bergman's Persona.

In the first of a series of legendary performances for Bergman, Liv Ullmann plays a stage actor who has inexplicably gone mute. An equally mesmerising Bibi Andersson is the garrulous young nurse caring for her in a remote island cottage. While isolated, the two women undergo a mysterious spiritual and emotional transference. Performed with astonishing nuance and shot in stark contrast and soft light by Sven Nykvist, the film is a penetrating, dreamlike work of profound psychological depth.

Timing: 5:00 pm, Friday, December 16, 2022 at Research and Publication Centre (RPC), 2nd floor, 65 Main Boulevard Gulberg, Lahore (next to Standard Chartered Bank, above Indesign showroom).

All friends are welcome. Tea will be served after the show.

Rashed Rahman

Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)

Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook) 

The News on Sunday Column December 11, 2022

As written by me.

Political muddle

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Since Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government’s ouster through a no-confidence motion in April 2022, the country’s political horizon has been exhibiting extremes of noise and confusion, with no end in sight so far. This muddle is the result of Imran Khan’s aggressive campaign against the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government and the now retired COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa for ‘ditching’ Imran. The received wisdom is that Imran Khan lost the backing of the military establishment in 2021 over the appointment of a new ISI chief to replace Lt-General (now retired) Faiz Hameed, whom Imran insisted on retaining. The fact is that Lt-General (retd) Faiz Hameed had to take command of a corps in order to be eligible for appointment as COAS. He was thus appointed Peshawar Corps Commander over Imran’s objections and foot dragging on the new ISI incumbent’s decision. This episode was certainly a turning point in the Imran Khan-military establishment’s relationship, which is alleged to have been carefully crafted and nurtured from 2011 onwards.

However, it is arguable that while the ISI chief issue may have proved the last straw for the military establishment accused of manipulating the 2018 general elections to bring Imran Khan to power, a whole series of reservations about Imran Khan’s handling of the economy (e.g. 70 percent increase in borrowing in four years as compared to the previous 70 years), foreign relations (alienating the US, China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE), accountability (not a single case initiated by Imran Khan’s government through the National Accountability Bureau could be proved), and politics (virtually ignoring parliament, hitting new lows in language and conduct towards the opposition) may have fed into the military establishment’s growing alarm about the direction the country appeared to be heading in. Not the least of the military’s worries was the pressure on the defence budget because of bad economic performance.

Urban legend has it that once the establishment had decided it could no longer support Imran Khan, it may have ‘facilitated’ the jumping ship by 20 PTI MNAs during the no-confidence vote. Immediately after his ouster, Imran Khan came out with guns blazing against his erstwhile backers (and the US, claimed to be behind the ‘conspiracy’ to oust him). This unprecedented abusive diatribe against the now retired COAS General Bajwa and other top military commanders proved highly offensive to the institution, but its inability to put a stop to this abuse (allegedly because there was some support and sympathy for Imran Khan within the military) proved highly embarrassing. General Bajwa left under a cloud because of this denouement, and it is only now, when the change of command has been completed, that Imran Khan and the PTI have called a ‘ceasefire’ in a transparent attempt to mend fences with the new command.

Imran Khan’s attempts to turn the tables on the government and the establishment through street power (public rallies, the long march, now again street rallies) have not yielded the results he may have hoped for. The long march more or less fizzled out after the Wazirabad attack in which Imran Khan was wounded. Street rallies are unlikely in the prevailing atmosphere to pressurise an increasingly determined government to hold early general elections, as Imran Khan has been demanding.

Actually the main actors in the ouster of Imran Khan were not equally motivated to go ahead with the no-confidence move. Pakistan People’s Party chief Asif Zardari was determined to see the back of Imran Khan as was the Jamiat-i-Ulema-Islam-Fazl’s Maulana Fazlur Rehman. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) was, however, arguably of two minds. Nawaz Sharif was of the view that it would be better to leave Imran Khan in place till the end of his term (August 2023) as his deteriorating political graph would by then have seen him fall totally flat on his face, providing the opposition as a whole a clear road to victory in the 2023 general elections. Zardari, and Shahbaz Sharif, were committed to get rid of the corruption cases filed against them during the PTI tenure. The latter may also have been motivated by the ambition (in the absence of the elder brother) to secure the prime ministership. However, despite their success in ousting Imran Khan, the PDM coalition has found itself burdened by the messy legacy of the PTI, contributing to a loss of political capital.

Imran Khan’s threat to dissolve the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assemblies if his demand for early elections is not met is proving harder to do than perhaps Imran had thought. Despite lip service to being bound by Imran Khan’s command, Punjab Chief Minister (CM) Pervaiz Elahi’s Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) seems reluctant to let go of power in the politically most important province. The rumour mill is also alleging the CM has initiated contacts with the new army top brass, a proclivity Pervaiz Elahi has revealed the other day, stretches back to 1983 (and perhaps even earlier).

Until now, the PML-N seemed not to be taking the Assemblies dissolution threat too seriously. However, after examining the constitutional, legal and political options to prevent the dissolution happening, the PML-N seems to have come to the conclusion that this is not an easy task. They have now decided, on Nawaz Sharif’s directive, to prepare for the possibility that a dissolution may occur. Nawaz has asked the party’s Punjab chief, Rana Sanaullah, to initiate homework to identify suitable candidates for Punjab, the PML-N’s traditional stronghold, in the event a dissolution and fresh election is unavoidable.

Whatever the role, past and present, of the main characters in this drama may have been, the country seems headed for a denouement that poses new, and at present unanswerable, dilemmas.

As printed by the paper.

Political muddle

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Since the ouster of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government through a no-confidence motion in April 2022, the country’s political horizon has been exhibiting extremes of noise and confusion, with no end in sight so far. This muddle is the result of Imran Khan’s aggressive campaign against the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government and the now retired COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa for ‘ditching’ Imran. The received wisdom is that Imran Khan lost the backing of the military establishment in 2021 over the appointment of a new ISI chief to replace Lt-General (now retired) Faiz Hameed, whom Imran insisted on retaining. The fact is that Hameed had to take command of a corps in order to be eligible for appointment as COAS. He was thus appointed the Peshawar Corps Commander over Imran’s objections and foot dragging on the appointment of the new ISI chief. This episode was certainly a turning point in the Imran Khan-military establishment’s relationship.

However, it can be argued that while the ISI chief issue may have proved the last straw for the military establishment accused of manipulating the 2018 general elections to bring Imran Khan to power, a whole series of reservations about Imran Khan’s handling of the economy (e.g. 70 percent increase in borrowing in four years as compared to the previous 70 years), foreign relations (alienating the US, China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE), accountability (not a single case initiated by Imran Khan’s government through the National Accountability Bureau could be proved), and politics (virtually ignoring parliament, hitting new lows in language and conduct towards the opposition) may have fed into the military establishment’s growing alarm about the direction the country appeared to be heading in. Not the least of the military’s worries was the pressure on the defence budget because of bad economic performance.

Urban legend has it that once the establishment had decided it could no longer support Imran Khan, it may have ‘facilitated’ the jumping ship by 20 PTI MNAs during the no-confidence vote. Immediately after his ouster, Imran Khan came out with guns blazing against his erstwhile backers (and the US, claimed to be behind the ‘conspiracy’ to oust him). This unprecedented diatribe against the (now retired) COAS and other top military commanders was highly offensive to the institution and highly embarrassing. Gen Bajwa left under a cloud because of this denouement, and it is only now, after the change of command has been completed, that Imran Khan and the PTI have called a ‘ceasefire’ in a transparent attempt to mend fences with the new command.

Imran Khan’s attempts to turn the tables on the government and the establishment through street power (public rallies, the long march, street rallies once again) have not yielded the results he may have hoped for. The long march more or less fizzled out after the Wazirabad attack in which Imran Khan was wounded. Street rallies are unlikely in the prevailing atmosphere to mount enough pressure on an increasingly determined government to hold early general elections.

Actually, the main actors in the ouster of Imran Khan were not equally motivated to go ahead with the no-confidence move. The Pakistan Peoples Party chief Asif Zardari was determined to see the back of Imran Khan as was the Jamiat-i-Ulema-Islam-Fazl’s Maulana Fazlur Rehman. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) was, however, arguably of two minds. Nawaz Sharif was of the view that it would be better to leave Imran Khan in place till the end of his term (August 2023) as his deteriorating political graph would by then have seen him fall totally flat on his place, providing the opposition as a whole a clear road to victory in the 2023 general elections. Zardari and Shahbaz Sharif were committed to get rid of the corruption cases filed against them during the PTI tenure. The latter may also have been motivated by the ambition (in the absence of the elder brother) to secure the prime ministership. However, despite their success in ousting Imran Khan, the PDM coalition has found itself burdened by the messy legacy of the PTI, contributing to a loss of political capital.

Imran Khan’s threat to dissolve the provincial assemblies in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa if his demand for early elections is not met is proving harder to execute than perhaps Imran had believed. Despite lip service to being bound by Imran Khan’s command, Chief Minister Parvez Elahi’s Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) seems reluctant to let go of power in the politically most important province. The rumour mill is also alleging that the CM has initiated contacts with the new army top brass, a proclivity Elahi has revealed the other day and which stretches back at least to 1983.

Until recently, the PML-N seemed not to be taking the assemblies’ dissolution threat too seriously. However, after examining the constitutional, legal and political options to prevent the dissolution happening, the PML-N seems to have come to the conclusion that this is not an easy task. They have now decided, on Nawaz Sharif’s directive, to prepare for the possibility that a dissolution may occur. Nawaz has asked the party’s Punjab chief, Rana Sanaullah, to initiate homework to identify suitable candidates for the Punjab, the PML-N’s traditional stronghold, in the event a dissolution and fresh election are unavoidable.

Whatever the role, past and present, of the main characters in this drama may have been, the country seems headed for a denouement that poses new, and at present unanswerable, dilemmas.

 

The writer is a veteran journalist who has held senior editorial positions in several newspapers

Business Recorder Column December 6, 2022

Bajwa tales

 

Rashed Rahman

 

The fierce ping pong of statements by the government and the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) continues without any signs of abating in favour of a civilised, democratic exchange. Of late, these diatribes have centred on the role of former COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa. No sooner had General Bajwa laid down his uniform on November 29, 2022 that Imran Khan launched into a series of interviews and messages bemoaning his having trusted General Bajwa, whom he accused of playing a ‘double game’ (i.e. playing both sides against the middle). Predictably, Prime Minister (PM) Shahbaz Sharif and Federal Railways Minister Khwaja Saad Rafique whaled into Imran Khan in response, the PM accusing him of undermining the foundations of the country just to regain power, while Saad Rafique took up Imran’s statement admitting his giving General Bajwa an extension his biggest mistake. If so, asked Saad Rafique, why did Imran Khan repeat the offer later, when things had gone down the tube?

While these responses from the government fall within the ambit of the predictable, Punjab Chief Minister (CM) Pervaiz Elahi followed up on his son Moonis Elahi’s revelation the other day that General Bajwa nudged them towards the PTI in April 2022 during the build-up to the no-confidence motion against Imran Khan’s government. The father not only upheld the son’s statement, he virtually thanked God (and General Bajwa) for showing them the light and the better way forward: towards the PTI. Pervaiz Elahi went on to boast that he has smooth, cordial relations with the army (and judiciary) since 1983. He then dilated on the Sharifs’ untrustworthiness, claiming they had ditched him at least five times, without however explaining when and how. Sceptics may be inclined to view the statement about ‘smooth, cordial relations’ with the army as an admission of being part of the collaborationist political culture that has overtaken the country since the last three to four decades. And they would be justified in asking the CM about his and his family’s ditching the Sharifs after the 1999 military coup.

What Moonis and his father’s remarks point to is the distance between their perceptions and Imran Khan’s continuing bluster against his erstwhile supporter General Bajwa and, by extension, the institution of the military. Elder Chaudhry Shujaat refused to go along with Pervaiz Elahi’s joining PTI because of Imran Khan’s insulting behaviour towards the army and its top commanders. But Pervaiz says, despite and in refutation of Imran Khan’s claims, that General Bajwa did not play any double game. To soften the blow perhaps, Pervaiz Elahi in the next breath said neither did Imran Khan. CM Pervaiz Elahi expressed his preference for the Punjab Assembly to remain intact till at least March 2023, while hastening to add the ritual rider that he would not hesitate even a minute should Imran Khan command the dissolution. Pervaiz chided his political ‘boss’ for name calling the military top brass Mir Sadiq and Mir Jaffer. He also delivered the wisdom that Imran Khan’s team was ‘amateur’ and therefore could not deliver.

The father-son duo’s defence of General Bajwa and differing narrative from Imran Khan suggests distance, if not a gulf, between the two allies. Given CM Pervaiz Elahi’s boast about his relationship with the army since 1983, these differences revolve around keeping the military on board by not lambasting the previous top brass, a gambit seen as annoying to the institution as a whole. Admittedly, the unprecedented exposure of the military’s role in bringing Imran Khan to power through questionable if not dubious means, the saga of growing differences between the backers and the PTI government, and the eventual denouement points in the sorry direction of one more example of the military’s intervention in politics and, as it turns out, a disastrous one at that.

General Bajwa will no doubt have the time and leisure now to reflect on what has befallen him as a result of all these controversies. Some would see his departure as an unenviable end to his six years in power. General Bajwa must be rueing the fallout for his personal prestige and repute as well as for the institution he commanded. Perhaps the afterthought may strike him that he would have been better off and left behind a more honourable legacy had he not accepted the extension and gone home at the appointed time. He is of course not the only COAS who has enjoyed an extension, but each time the decision has proved controversial. For one, it disrupts the normal transition and promotion structure of the top command, engendering unnecessary bitterness amongst those who end up missing their best chances. Two, it militates in favour of the military’s intervention in politics, something General Bajwa says the institution has now decided to stay away from. If so, we should consider ways and means to stop this practice permanently in the interests of the country as well as the military.

The unremitting and shrill political confrontation between the two sides of the political divide shows no signs of abating or leading to a reasonable, democratic solution. However, since being ousted through a no-confidence motion in April 2022, Imran Khan has tried all the tricks up his sleeve to pave the path to his return to power. These include street power (rallies, long march) and the threat to disrupt the system by dissolving the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assemblies and precipitating provincial elections in over half the country (by population). However, this last threat now increasingly reveals itself as merely a pressure tactic to achieve the demand for early general elections. The government appears in no mood to buckle under to this demand. Therefore the likely scenario for the remainder of this year and the next seems to be more of the same: confrontation, statement ping pong and an unresolvable impasse. How long this pressure cooker can hold is beyond our powers to predict at this time.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Business Recorder Column November 29, 2022

The season of swan songs

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Outgoing COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa in an address to the Defence and Martyrs Ceremony at GHQ on November 23, 2022 made an unprecedented admission about the army’s unconstitutional interference in politics for 70 years, while criticising the political parties for their errors, which include being intolerant towards rivals. Most of the latter criticism was aimed at the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) for crafting a “fake and false” narrative against the army and calling senior commanders names. In a rare show of magnanimity, General Bajwa said they were ready to forgive these trespasses and leave the controversy behind.

General Bajwa underlined the fact that the army often faced criticism because of “unconstitutional” “interference in politics” in various ways over the last seven decades. What General Bajwa admitted regarding the (dominant) role of the army in interfering in politics has remained a widespread phenomenon. Such interference includes dislodging civilian governments through coups and indirectly controlling weak dispensations. Political leaders are not blameless either. They readily ceded space to the military due to their weaknesses (and collaborationist tendencies to attain power), thereby allowing a breach of institutional boundaries (i.e. kowtowing to the real seat of power). General Bajwa even revealed the (recent) date of the military’s decision after intense deliberations no longer to interfere in politics. He put this at February 2022. It may be recalled that this was a period of intense open and behind the scenes political manoeuvring in the backdrop of then Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan’s falling out with his erstwhile military backers (who brought him to power in 2018 as the third alternative to the two mainstream parties that had dominated politics since the 1990s) over the appointment of the new ISI chief and the buildup to the vote of no-confidence that removed Imran Khan and the PTI government from power.

While General Bajwa went on to say that the military was strictly adhering to its decision and would continue to do so, knowledgeable commentators by and large preferred to reserve judgement, saying only time will tell or the jury is still out on this development. Needless to say, even this declared stance of political ‘neutrality’ was enough to incense the deposed ex-PM Imran Khan into unleashing a torrent of abuse on the military leadership, steeped no doubt in his disappointment that the ‘lift’ into power hitherto available to him had now come to a grinding halt. Hence also the cries of ‘betrayal’ by Imran Khan and the PTI.

Dilating on the so-called foreign conspiracy to bring about regime change, he questioned if this were the case, would the military stand by and do nothing? The question seems logical, but with due respect, the military could theoretically go along with any such conspiracy if it accords with its own plans. That is not to say that was the case in this instance. General Bajwa referred to the wind being taken out of the sails of this leaky foreign conspiracy boat by none other than the authors themselves by now. No doubt obliquely referring to the unprecedented abuse the military top brass has been subjected to by Imran Khan and the PTI, General Bajwa said the army exercised restraint in the larger national interest despite having the resources and opportunities to respond to this barrage, but there is a limit. Even if we take General Bajwa at his word, he did not care to explicate whether the ‘limit’ had already been reached or what may constitute the unacceptable.

General Bajwa’s readiness to forgive errant parties such as the PTI may also, if reports and commentary in the media are to be believed, be motivated by the alleged risk of internal dissent within the military if Imran Khan is harshly dealt with. It appears the latter has been relying on supposed support within the military as a guarantee that his brinkmanship will not evoke an adverse reaction. But as on so many other issues, this may be the self-serving delusion of Imran Khan. If there is one thing the Pakistan military is known for, it is its internal cohesiveness, unity and discipline, especially when the institution itself, in the shape of its top commanders, comes under such verbal assault.

While there would be few dissenters with General Bajwa’s formulations in general, the fact is that the military has dictated matters in the country almost since Independence. If for this purpose in the early 1950s it relied on its unholy alliance with the bureaucracy, by 1958 it had assumed direct command of the affairs of state (to be repeatedly resorted to in subsequent years). The 1956 Constitution had already promulgated One Unit and since Independence, the military-bureaucratic oligarchy had conspired against a representative, genuine democracy that took due account of the undeniable reality that Pakistan was a multi-national state requiring a different state structure than a domineering Centre. Add to this the peculiarity of the new state having two wings separated by a thousand miles of hostile Indian territory. Instead of taking due account of these realities, the state attempted, again and again, to impose a unitary structure that militated against the rights of the smaller nationalities and even the majority Bengali majority!

General Bajwa’s attempt to whitewash the military’s role in the 1971 debacle by calling it a political, not military failure, fails to convince. General Yahya Khan was in power at the time, and despite Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s role arguably in ensuring the debacle, the military cannot, force imbalance with the enemy notwithstanding, justify its genocidal massacre and women’s rape on a mass scale. If anything, it is a reason for all of us to hang our heads in shame.

Whether 1971, before or after, the military’s penchant for running the country directly or from behind the scenes has yielded nothing but disaster. If the appropriate lessons have been learnt without shrinking from the truth, and General Bajwa’s successors in the military’s command adhere to his statement of policy of no more interference in politics, that may offer a glimmer of hope that Pakistan may finally be headed for civilian, democratic supremacy. But sceptics will not so easily be convinced, given our history and the military’s track record in this respect. They will no doubt be watching closely and relying only on the judgement of time.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Business Recorder Column November 22, 2022

Historic accord

 

Rashed Rahman

 

The climate summit COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, has produced a historic accord on funding to help vulnerable countries cope with the devastating impacts of global warming. This positive outcome was not arrived at easily. The negotiations dragged on for two weeks, appearing at times to be teetering on the brink of a collapse, with the last two days seeing round-the-clock efforts. The major breakthrough is on setting up a fund for “loss and damage”, which Pakistan has been advocating for three decades. Pakistan has hailed the outcome as the UN conference responding to the “voices of the damaged”. However, all was not sweetness and honey despite this breakthrough as there was anger at the failure to push further on cutting emissions, believed to be the main culprit fuelling global warming and climate change.

Credit must go to Prime Minister (PM) Shahbaz Sharif, Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Climate Minister Sherry Rahman for the success of the effort. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres must also be lauded for his support to the climate talks, although he too bemoaned the lack of consensus on the urgent carbon cutting needed to tackle global warming. “Our planet is still in the emergency room,” is how he characterised the threat facing the whole world.

So while we celebrate the setting up of the loss and damage fund, we should note that the world is still far from the desirable commitment to reducing, and finally phasing out, fossil fuels that are the main culprits upsetting the delicate ecological balance of our living planet. At best COP27 held to the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels. Scientists say global warming is at 1.2 degrees Celsius so far, and even at this level the world has been afflicted by a cascade of climate-driven extremes that threaten developing countries with escalating disasters, energy and food prices crises, and ballooning debt. Imagine if their forecast of the world heading for 2.5 degrees Celsius at present comes true.

The loss and damage fund will be geared towards developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Examples of such countries are island and coastal areas threatened by rising sea levels because of the melting of the polar ice caps and other disturbances in weather patterns. Pakistan has this year suffered devastating floods brought on by enhanced melting of mountain glaciers and above normal monsoon rains that have drowned one third of the country and destroyed the lives and livelihoods of 33 million people. Pakistan, with a struggling economy even before the natural catastrophe, fought hard at COP27 for help to mitigate the effects of the disaster. Some 134 countries are expected to benefit from the fund. However, many thorny questions still remain unanswered, which will be dealt with by a transitional committee, expected to report to next year’s climate meeting in Dubai to get the funding operational.

Inevitably, these unanswered questions include who will contribute how much, what is the desired size of the fund, what will be the criteria to disburse funds in what priority to the most stricken countries? That indicates there may still be many a slip between the cup and the lip. Interestingly, the ‘resistance’ of developed countries to any notion of liability and compensation was acceded to.

The fact is that the unbridled exploitation of natural resources and fossil fuels for capitalist industrialisation and its unlimited appetite for maximising profit even at the expense of the world’s natural habitats for the last three centuries has rendered the globe ecologically disturbed. And because developed countries too share the same planetary home, they have not been spared extreme climate change and accompanying natural catastrophes. Were that not the case, perhaps the developed world would not have acceded to the worldwide demand for help to vulnerable developing countries like Pakistan. The issue of emissions cutting, which is at the heart of the effort to rescue the planet from the adverse effects of three centuries of unbridled fossil fuel burning, deforestation and the destruction of natural habitats that has rendered many species extinct or threatened with extinction, is a tough nut to crack because it involves the switchover from fossil fuels to non-polluting renewable energy sources. Although the technology to bring this about now exists, the costs of the switchover, possible disruptions to economies and other roadblocks make the target not easy to accomplish. First, there has to be a global agreement or plan how this will be carried out, in what timeframe, who will pay (or share) the costs involved. It seems logical that the greatest resistance and attempts to slow down and delay the phases of this process will come from the developed world and their corporate sector.

However, the globe can no longer be left to the ‘tender’ mercies of global corporate capitalism, not only but also because the people of the entire world, including the developed world, now lie in the path of the destruction already caused, and that will continue till a final change in the way industry and commerce functions, how it obtains its energy, etc, are sorted out. This promises a fairly lengthy process of international conferences, negotiations, hard bargaining and, hopefully, in the end, agreement in the interests of all peoples of the world. Anything short of this spells doom-laden scenarios of incrementally catastrophic natural disasters and their concomitant human and material cost.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

The November 2022 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review is out

The November 2022 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out. Link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com

Contents:

1. Tapan Bose: Widening inequality, increasing human suffering and Human Rights.

2. Sara Kazmi: The Marxist Punjabi Movement: Language and Literary Radicalism in Pakistan.

Rashed Rahman

Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)

Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)

Business Recorder Column November 15, 2022

Master of U-turns

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Whatever other foibles Imran Khan may be accused of, consistency is not amongst them. Ever since his ouster through a no-confidence motion in April 2022, he has attempted to craft a narrative of a foreign conspiracy, backed if not initiated by the US, to bring about regime change. As proof of his allegations, he brandished a piece of paper at a rally, purportedly a cipher (coded) message sent by our ambassador in Washington reporting on a conversation with a senior US official. Veteran Pakistani diplomats when asked have weighed in with the view that such conversations and ciphers do not necessarily mean much and are better ignored.

Imran Khan, however, in his bullheaded approach to all matters, constructed his conspiracy theory around the cipher. Despite resort to the typical Goebbelsian tactic of repeating a lie enough times to make it appear true, Imran Khan has failed to convince anyone other than his fanatical following of the verity of the charge of a foreign regime change conspiracy against him. In the process, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition government has been attempting to redress some of the damage Imran Khan’s government inflicted on our relationship with the US (and other countries).

Now, in one more of his by now familiar U-turns, he has disavowed the foreign conspiracy theory to the extent of wanting to leave it in the past and move on to repairing his relationship with Washington. This he has stated in an interview to the Financial Times. He now claims in the next breath that the US-Pakistan relationship is a master-servant or even master-slave relationship, and that he ‘only’ sought a dignified one in Pakistan’s best interests. It is amazing how Imran Khan selectively picks points to argue his case without a nod even to the facts of life that are no secret from anyone. Who does not know that Pakistan is dependent on US goodwill, not only for bilateral advantage, but also to clear the decks for the IMF and other international lenders to provide Pakistan’s sick economy with the ‘drip’ of loans and finance to stay afloat (in addition, it may be added, to other multilateral and bilateral borrowing without which Pakistan’s economy would likely collapse). Of course, economics is not all there is to the US-Pakistan relationship, which encompasses strategic, and therefore military ties. To arrive at the destination of an honourable relationship with the US (and all other lenders) would require a complete departure from the model of dependent development pursued by Pakistan almost from its inception.

Addicted to stirring up the political pot every day, Imran Khan then goes on to assert that Nawaz Sharif is ‘not allowing’ his younger brother Prime Minister (PM) Shahbaz Sharif to hold early elections, the demand around which Imran Khan’s politics has now converged after many detours since his fall from power. Is there any evidence that the PM disagrees with Nawaz Sharif’s (presumed) opinion that early elections are not in the interests of the ruling PDM coalition? None that one can see. The PDM coalition government, despite, or even because of, having lost political capital because it inherited an economy devastated by the Imran Khan government’s incompetence and faulty policies, sees no alternative to sticking to the course of serving out its term till August 2023, in the hope that by then economic indicators may improve and bolster its political position going into the next general elections.

Meanwhile Imran Khan’s dual policy of at the same time attacking the establishment and wooing it to restore him to power has produced contradictory effects. On the one hand, speculation revolves around the ‘division’ in the establishment (pro- and anti-Imran) that seems to be at work in the relatively kid glove treatment being handed out Imran Khan. On the other, division or no division, the establishment, as is its wont, has closed ranks in the face of Imran Khan’s unremitting attacks to safeguard the internal unity and discipline of the state institution at the heart of the establishment, i.e. the military. Much hullaballoo has also been created by Imran Khan around the question of the next army chief. Institutional and government views may or may not be coinciding so far in this regard. If so, the decision will probably also reflect the desire of the military establishment to control the damage to its reputation at the hands of the wild accusations of Imran Khan. The attack on him in Wazirabad is condemnable, but to fling wild accusations without a shred of evidence or proof against the PM, Interior Minister and a serving General does no service to even Imran’s own cause. His ally, Punjab Chief Minister Parvez Elahi has tried to persuade Khan of the error of such tactics, but it seems to no avail. The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) has now approached the Supreme Court (SC) in all its principal seats to have an FIR of the attack registered along the lines Khan wants. This is yet another example of the burgeoning trend of the judicialisation of politics that has been in play for years now.

If Imran Khan and the PTI continue on their present aggressive course, civil strife and possible bloodshed looms. That would bring extra-political forces into play, who may, even reluctantly, have to reverse outgoing COAS General Bajwa’s pledge that the military intends to retreat from interfering in politics. If, as is familiar from the past, the perception grows that the impasse between the two sides of the political divide is an impassable obstacle, the establishment may feel compelled to intervene in some form or the other. If that unfortunately transpires, the damage to democracy and civilian rule can and will be placed squarely at the door of the right wing, populist, proto-fascist PTI and its leader Imran Khan.

 

 

 

 

 

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