Business Recorder Column July 25, 2023

As written by me:

Elections loom amid a myriad questions

 

Rashed Rahman

 

The bizarre is not only commonplace, some argue it is the norm in Pakistan. Take for example the latest offering by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in power to appoint its current Finance Minister Ishaq Dar as the caretaker Prime Minister (PM) when they leave office and the election campaign will be set in motion. The argument put forward by the PML-N for this unprecedented deviation from the whole idea of a caretaker (neutral) government to conduct the day-to-day affairs of the country until a new government is elected is that Dar is the best person to keep the economy running, take necessary decisions about it and ensure the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditionalities for the Standby Agreement that has offered us some fiscal breathing space continue to be adhered to. Indirectly, it is being reported that the PML-N is also keen to persuade its coalition allies that only a consensus candidate of theirs will prevent the ubiquitous establishment from bringing in someone of their choice, a move that could, it is argued, result in a delay in the general elections for an indefinite period. The PML-N government is also reportedly contemplating a quick (time is of the essence now) reform of the Elections Act 2017 to empower the caretaker setup to take important decisions just like an elected government.

The reports on this issue also betray a complete lack of consensus within the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) ruling coalition. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) reportedly objects to a (non-neutral) ‘member’ (actually related through marriage) of the Sharif clan being appointed caretaker PM. The Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) does not accept that any decision on the candidate for caretaker PM has so far been taken, implicitly negating the candidacy of Ishaq Dar. Persuading just these two major partners in the PDM alliance seems an uphill task.

The reservations of the PML-N’s allies in government aside, what does the purported effort say about the credibility of any such caretaker dispensation? It is already bad enough that objective observers have grave reservations about the general elections looming towards the end of 2023 being, and being seen to be, fair and free. Whatever space for believing, in the face of the manner in which the political cards have been stacked in favour of the incumbents (with the help, it must be acknowledged, of the establishment), that the elections exercise will be a credible democratic exercise would be seriously eroded if the PML-N (reportedly on Nawaz Sharif’s urging) persists in its bizarre effort to impose a PML-N insider as caretaker PM.

As it is, following the ouster of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government through a no-confidence motion in 2022, the whole political landscape has undergone some profound but indigestible changes. First and foremost, given our history and political culture, we tend to gravitate towards support of the underdog (perceived or actual). This phenomenon was on display in support to Imran Khan’s repeated show of his street power after his ouster. Then came May 9, 2023 and the entire scenario was turned on its head, whether by happenstance or design is still being debated. There is little doubt that the PTI’s political culture drew a red line where Imran Khan’s life and freedom are concerned. Although the PTI’s reaction to the attempt on Imran Khan’s life in Wazirabad was relatively muted, his arrest in a bizarre fashion from a court premises seems to have galvanised the militants within the party’s ranks to attack and even burn down military installations and martyrs’ commemorative sites. Whether the speculation about this being an elaborate entrapment plan by the powers-that-be hold any water or not, the crackdown that followed deprived the PTI of almost the entire cast of prominent leaders and cadres, some taking flight to other parties, others saying farewell to politics altogether. The military’s court martial of some 102 officers and other ranks for dereliction of security duties (or allegedly sympathies with the PTI) points in the direction of an alleged hope of the May 9 ‘insurrectionists’ that elements within the military would support them (realistic or not true notwithstanding).

Even before this, Raja Riaz, having travelled from the PPP to the PTI’s ranks, emerged in the National Assembly as the (PTI dissident) Leader of the Opposition after Imran Khan abandoned the National and two provincial Assemblies. Given the role of the Leader of the Opposition in agreeing with the incumbent PM the name of the caretaker PM, Raja Riaz’s track record and credentials hardly inspire confidence in what has been reduced to a sham of the process.

Two important questions remain, the answers to which are not readily available. First and foremost, having hollowed out the ground from under Imran Khan’s feet through repression, what is in store for him: a ban on his party, disqualification, imprisonment for him? No clear answer is available yet. Second, with Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan imminent once certain legal obstacles are out of the way (e.g. review of his disqualification and imprisonment), could the former PM (thrice turfed out) still be considered on the right side of history (i.e. resisting the overpowering influence of the establishment)? The answer to this question too lies in the not so far away future. Both answers are likely to define the shape of politics in Pakistan for the foreseeable future.

Whatever those answers, if there is one irrefutable lesson to be learnt from Pakistan’s tragic history, it is that political stability, and therefore economic and social progress, are only possible if the coming elections are free and fair, and continued periodic free and fair elections ensure the consolidation of a genuine, credible, civilian-dominated democratic system, perhaps at the present conjuncture of history the only path to providing the suffering people a voice and (hopefully) some redress of their mounting woes.

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

As printed by the paper:

Elections loom amid a myriad questions

 

Rashed Rahman

 

The bizarre is not only commonplace, some argue it is the norm in Pakistan. Take for example the latest offering by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in power to appoint its current Finance Minister Ishaq Dar as the caretaker Prime Minister (PM). The argument put forward by the PML-N for this unprecedented deviation from the whole idea of a caretaker (neutral) government to conduct the day-to-day affairs of the country until a new government is elected is that Dar is the best person to keep the economy running, take necessary decisions about it and ensure the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditionalities for the Standby Agreement that has offered us some fiscal breathing space continue to be adhered to. Indirectly, it is being reported that the PML-N is also keen to persuade its coalition allies that only a consensus candidate of theirs will prevent the ubiquitous establishment from bringing in someone of their choice, a move that could, it is argued, result in a delay in the general elections for an indefinite period. The PML-N government is also reportedly contemplating a quick (time is of the essence now) reform of the Elections Act 2017 to empower the caretaker setup to take important decisions just like an elected government.

The reports on this issue also betray a complete lack of consensus within the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) ruling coalition. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) reportedly objects to a (non-neutral) ‘member’ (actually related through marriage) of the Sharif clan being appointed caretaker PM. The Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) does not accept that any decision on the candidate for caretaker PM has so far been taken, implicitly negating the candidacy of Ishaq Dar. Persuading just these two major partners in the PDM alliance seems an uphill task.

The reservations of the PML-N’s allies in government aside, what does the purported effort say about the credibility of any such caretaker dispensation? It is already bad enough that objective observers have grave reservations about the general elections looming towards the end of 2023 being, and being seen to be, fair and free. Whatever space for believing, in the face of the manner in which the political cards have been stacked in favour of the incumbents (with the help, it must be acknowledged, of the establishment), that the elections exercise will be a credible democratic exercise would be seriously eroded if the PML-N (reportedly on Nawaz Sharif’s urging) persists in its bizarre effort to impose a PML-N insider as caretaker PM.

As it is, following the ouster of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government through a no-confidence motion in 2022, the whole political landscape has undergone some profound but indigestible changes. First and foremost, given our history and political culture, we tend to gravitate towards support of the underdog (perceived or actual). This phenomenon was on display in support to Imran Khan’s repeated show of his street power after his ouster. Then came May 9, 2023 and the entire scenario was turned on its head, whether by happenstance or design is still being debated. There is little doubt that the PTI’s political culture drew a red line where Imran Khan’s life and freedom are concerned. Although the PTI’s reaction to the attempt on Imran Khan’s life in Wazirabad was relatively muted, his arrest in a bizarre fashion from a court premises seems to have galvanised the militants within the party’s ranks to attack and even burn down military installations and martyrs’ commemorative sites. Whether the speculation about this being an elaborate entrapment plan by the powers that be hold any water or not, the crackdown that followed deprived the PTI of almost the entire cast of prominent leaders and cadres, some taking flight to other parties, others saying farewell to politics altogether. The military’s court martial of some 102 officers and other ranks for dereliction of security duties (or allegedly sympathies with the PTI) points in the direction of an alleged hope of the May 9 ‘insurrectionists’ that elements within the military would support them (realistic, if not true or not, notwithstanding).

Even before this, Raja Riaz, having travelled from the PPP to the PTI’s ranks, emerged in the National Assembly as the (PTI dissident) Leader of the Opposition after Imran Khan abandoned the National and two provincial Assemblies. Given the role of the Leader of the Opposition in agreeing with the incumbent PM the name of the caretaker PM, Raja Riaz’s track record and credentials hardly inspire confidence in what has been reduced to a sham of the process.

Two important questions remain, the answers to which are not readily available. First and foremost, having hollowed out the ground from under Imran Khan’s feet through repression, what is in store for him: ban on his party, disqualification, imprisonment for him? No clear answer is available yet. Second, with Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan imminent once certain legal obstacles are out of the way (e.g. review of his disqualification and imprisonment), could the former PM (thrice turfed out) still be considered on the right side of history (i.e. resisting the overpowering influence of the establishment)? The answer to this question too lies in the not so far away future. Both answers are likely to define the shape of politics in Pakistan for the foreseeable future.

Whatever those answers, if there is one irrefutable lesson to be learnt from Pakistan’s tragic history, it is that political stability, and therefore economic and social progress, are only possible if the coming elections are free and fair, and continued periodic free and fair elections ensure the consolidation of a genuine, credible, civilian-dominated democratic system, perhaps at the present conjuncture of history the only path to providing the suffering people a voice and (hopefully) some redress of their mounting woes.

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com 

Business Recorder Letter July 19, 2023 on my Column

'Religious minorities'

This is apropos an article 'Religious minorities' woes' carried by Business Recorder yesterday. That the writer, Rashed Rahman, has shed light on a very high important subject is a fact. He has concluded his argument by saying that "One's thoughts inevitably turn to the Pakistan Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah desired, thought that he had achieved, and even reiterated his belief in its tolerant religious outlook on August 11, 1947 in his speech to the Constituent Assembly. Little did the great man know that in the Pakistan he bequeathed us, not only would religious minorities not have the freedom to practice their religion according to their beliefs, their very lives and futures, even on the touchstone of being citizens of this country, would be so imperilled." 

Let me add to the learned writer's argument by stating that the Quaid must be turning in his grave at the thought of what is being perpetrated in his name. 75 years after the death of the Quaid, we the Pakistanis are still struggling to follow the roadmap that he had arduously delineated for a newly independent nation as its leader. His famous August 11, 1947 speech is a case in point. Through this speech, he made it clear that he wanted a Muslim-majority but a progressive country; he never wanted a theocratic state. According to him, for example, "You are free. You are free to go to your temples, you are free to go to your mosques or to any other place of worship in this state of Pakistan. You may belong to any religion or caste or creed – that has nothing to do with the business of the state." Unfortunately, however, minorities in Pakistan are a fair game for the majority (Muslims) and State alike. There are three main types of marginalisation: social marginalisation, economic marginalisation and political marginalisation. Minorities in Pakistan face all the three. The situation, therefore, is quite worrisome. The State must ensure a climate free of discrimination and marginalisation.

Nida Bashir

Lahore

Business Recorder Column July 18, 2023

My column as written by me:

Religious minorities’ woes

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Amidst all the kerfuffle about general elections looming on the horizon, our attention has been diverted (inadvertently or deliberately?) from the continuing plight of religious minorities in our society. Consider.

On July 15, 2023, late at night when there was one more round of the incessant loadshedding, the 150-year-old Mari Mata Temple in Soldier Bazaar, Karachi, was set upon by diggers and a bulldozer and flattened. For reasons unknown, the outer walls and main gate of the temple were left standing while the entire inside structure was demolished. Area residents reported the presence of a police mobile to provide ‘cover’ to the demolition squad. In any case, had the police mobile squad proved inadequate, the temple is located close to the Soldier Bazaar police station, the latter thereby providing a ‘reliable’ back up should the need arise. The mandir (temple) was under the management of the Madrasi Hindu community of Karachi. The mandir management had been under considerable pressure for some time that it was a very old and precarious structure that might collapse any day. Reluctantly, the management agreed to temporarily move most of the temple deities to a small room near the storm water drain until they could carry out renovation work on the mandir. But the late night clandestine (with police connivance) demolition has brought into focus the real story.

The Madrasi community accuses two persons, Imran Hashmi and Rekha Bai, of forcing them to vacate the temple. The latter claims ownership of the temple land. There is also talk of these two having sold off the temple to a builder mafia for Rs 70 million so they could construct a commercial building on the site. Mention is also made of fake documents in the name of a person called ‘Navaid’ allowing conversion of the lease of the amenity plot to a commercial one. The whole episode smacks of the operational style of our builder mafia, with the added tragic aspect of a place of worship being demolished preparatory to seizing it for commercial development.

Interestingly, the news woke up the newly elected Mayor of Karachi, the Pakistan People’s Party’s (PPP’s) indomitable Murtaza Wahab a day later. Having woken up to the tragedy, however, the Mayor indulged in the usual official denial and obfuscation. He says he has checked and no demolition of the mandir has taken place and it is still intact. Now the logic of the demolishers in leaving the façade of the temple intact indeed begins to make sense. If the honourable Mayor had bothered to visit the site or, because he is a busy man, sent someone there with instructions not to just drive by but get off his vehicle and examine the premises as a whole, he might have come to a different and more accurate conclusion. Unfortunately his knee-jerk denial and ritual reiteration of the PPP’s belief in religious harmony and freedom did his credibility precious little good.

The very next day, July 16, 2023, there was a report of an attack on a temple in Ghouspur, Kashmore, Sindh. Not unusually, the police and local Hindu community’s versions bore no resemblance to each other. According to the former, a landlord’s house, to which the temple is adjacent, was the target of unidentified armed men enraged at not receiving protection money from the landlord in question for the last six months. Social media, however, was abuzz with claims that criminal elements had carried out an attack on the temple and badly damaged it. Jacobabad General Hindu Panchayat president Lalchand Seetlani and other office bearers condemned the (according to police not true) attack on Radha Swami Darbar Temple in Ghouspur.

If all this contradictory confusion has readers in a tizzy, there is more to come. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) has expressed concern and alarm at reports that 30 Hindus, including women and children, have been kidnapped and are being held hostage by organised criminal gangs in Kashmore and Ghotki, Sindh. HRCP says it has received disturbing reports that these gangs have threatened to attack the Hindu community’s sites of worship using high grade weapons. Now why, you may be wondering, would ‘organised criminal gangs’ be kidnapping and holding hostage members of the Hindu community and threatening deadly attacks on their temples. The first thought to spring to mind may well be that they are, as is their modus operandi, seeking ransom. We know that the area, and the riverine jungle extending into southern Punjab, have been the theatre of a protracted conflict between the police and dacoits based there. But then an unexpected light on the matter is shone by a letter and a report in our newspapers. They claim the matter pertains to the story of Seema Haider who clandestinely went to India with her children to marry a man in India she had got to know online. For Modi’s India this was ‘love jihad’ in reverse. Seema Haider’s case is still pending in our neighbouring country, but our ‘patriotic’ dacoits of the riverine jungle it seems have taken it upon themselves to threaten the safety and security of the Hindu community and their temples in Pakistan unless the Indian government repatriates Seema Haider to her country. Sigh. In a world in which boundaries are no longer as solid or intact courtesy the communications revolution, we are still bogged down in othering on a purely religious or nationality basis, to the extent of defending our ‘besmirched honour’ by threatening innocent citizens and their places of worship for no fault of theirs.

Lest readers get the wrong impression that this column is only about our beleaguered Hindu minority, allow me to point out the targeted killing the other day in Karachi of a Noha Khwan that the Shia community believes is the direct offshoot of the alleged sectarian killings of Shias in Parachinar lately. Let us also mention in passing recent reports of Sikh citizens in Peshawar being target killed by religious terrorists. Not to mention the almost daily reports of Ahmedi places of worship being defiled and demolished. This may still be a shade better than the past spate of killings of the community. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s Second Amendment to the 1973 Constitution declaring Ahmedis non-Muslims has inadvertently opened the floodgates of persecution of this (since then) religious minority to the extent of life, limb, places of worship being at extreme risk from majoritarian religious extremists.

One’s thoughts inevitably turn to the Pakistan Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah desired, thought he had achieved, and even reiterated his belief in its tolerant religious outlook on August 11, 1947 in his speech to the Constituent Assembly. Little did the great man know that in the Pakistan he bequeathed us, not only would religious minorities not have the freedom to practice their religion according to their beliefs, their very lives and futures, even on the touchstone of being citizens of this country, would be so imperilled.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

And as printed by the paper:

Religious minorities’ woes

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Amidst all the kerfuffle about general elections looming on the horizon, our attention has been diverted (inadvertently or deliberately?) from the continuing plight of religious minorities in our society. Consider.

On July 15, 2023, late at night when there was one more round of the incessant loadshedding, the 150-year-old Mari Mata Temple in Soldier Bazaar, Karachi, was set upon by diggers and a bulldozer and flattened. For reasons unknown, the outer walls and main gate of the temple were left standing while the entire inside structure was demolished. Area residents reported the presence of a police mobile to provide ‘cover’ to the demolition squad. In any case, had the police mobile squad proved inadequate, the temple is located close to the Soldier Bazaar police station, the latter thereby providing a ‘reliable’ back up should the need arise. The mandir (temple) was under the management of the Madrasi Hindu community of Karachi. The mandir management had been under considerable pressure for some time that it was a very old and precarious structure that might collapse any day. Reluctantly, the management agreed to temporarily move most of the temple deities to a small room near the storm water drain until they could carry out renovation work on the mandir. But the late night clandestine (with police connivance) demolition has brought into focus the real story.

The Madrasi community accuses two persons, Imran Hashmi and Rekha Bai, of forcing them to vacate the temple. The latter claims ownership of the temple land. There is also talk of these two having sold off the temple to a builder mafia for Rs 70 million so they could construct a commercial building on the site. Mention is also made of fake documents in the name of a person called ‘Navaid’ allowing conversion of the lease of the amenity plot to a commercial one. The whole episode smacks of the operational style of our builder mafia, with the added tragic aspect of a place of worship being demolished preparatory to seizing it for commercial development.

Interestingly, the news woke up the newly elected Mayor of Karachi, the Pakistan People’s Party’s (PPP’s) indomitable Murtaza Wahab a day later. Having woken up to the tragedy, however, the Mayor indulged in the usual official denial and obfuscation. He says he has checked and no demolition of the mandir has taken place and it is still intact. Now the logic of the demolishers in leaving the façade of the temple intact indeed begins to make sense. If the honourable Mayor had bothered to visit the site or, because he is a busy man, sent someone there with instructions not to just drive by but get off his vehicle and examine the premises as a whole, he might have come to a different and more accurate conclusion. Unfortunately his knee-jerk denial and ritual reiteration of the PPP’s belief in religious harmony and freedom did his credibility precious little good.

The very next day, July 16, 2023, there was a report of an attack on a temple in Ghouspur, Kashmore, Sindh. Not unusually, the police and local Hindu community’s versions bore no resemblance to each other. According to the former, a landlord’s house, to which the temple is adjacent, was the target of unidentified armed men enraged at not receiving protection money from the landlord in question for the last six months. Social media, however, was abuzz with claims that criminal elements had carried out an attack on the temple and badly damaged it. Jacobabad General Hindu Panchayat president Lalchand Seetlani and other office bearers condemned the (according to police not true) attack on Radha Swami Darbar Temple in Ghouspur.

If all this contradictory confusion has readers in a tizzy, there is more to come. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) has expressed concern and alarm at reports that 30 Hindus, including women and children, have been kidnapped and are being held hostage by organised criminal gangs in Kashmore and Ghotki, Sindh. HRCP says it has received disturbing reports that these gangs have threatened to attack the Hindu community’s sites of worship using high grade weapons. Now why, you may be wondering, would ‘organised criminal gangs’ be kidnapping and holding hostage members of the Hindu community and threatening deadly attacks on their temples. The first thought to spring to mind may well be that they are, as is their modus operandi, seeking ransom. We know that the area, and the riverine jungle extending into southern Punjab, have been the theatre of a protracted conflict between the police and dacoits based there. But then an unexpected light on the matter is shone by a letter and a report in our newspapers. They claim the matter pertains to the story of Seema Haider who clandestinely went to India with her children to marry a man in India she had got to know online. For Modi’s India this was ‘love jihad’ in reverse. Seema Haider’s case is still pending in our neighbouring country, but our ‘patriotic’ dacoits of the riverine jungle it seems have taken it upon themselves to threaten the safety and security of the Hindu community and their temples in Pakistan unless the Indian government repatriates Seema Haider to her country. Sigh. In a world in which boundaries are no longer as solid or intact courtesy the communications revolution, we are still bogged down in othering on a purely religious or nationality basis, to the extent of defending our ‘besmirched honour’ by threatening innocent citizens and their places of worship for no fault of theirs.

Lest readers get the wrong impression that this column is only about our beleaguered Hindu minority, allow me to point out the targeted killing the other day in Karachi of a Noha Khwan that the Shia community believes is the direct offshoot of the alleged sectarian killings of Shias in Parachinar lately. Let us also mention in passing recent reports of Sikh citizens in Peshawar being target killed by religious terrorists. Not to mention the almost daily reports of Ahmedi places of worship being defiled and demolished. This may still be a shade better than the past spate of killings of the community. One’s thoughts inevitably turn to the Pakistan Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah desired, thought he had achieved, and even reiterated his belief in its tolerant religious outlook on August 11, 1947 in his speech to the Constituent Assembly. Little did the great man know that in the Pakistan he bequeathed us, not only would religious minorities not have the freedom to practice their religion according to their beliefs, their very lives and futures, even on the touchstone of being citizens of this country, would be so imperilled.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

The July 2023 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out

The July 2023 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out. Link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com

Contents:

1. S M Naseem: Chronicles of a Nation's birth foretold – II.

2. Jamal Hussain: Acumen of Army Chiefs of Pakistan on Higher Military Strategy.

3. Eric Rahim: Introduction to his book A Promethean Vision: The Formation of Karl Marx's World View.

Rashed Rahman 

Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)

Editor in Pakistan, ZUVA (Kashmiri for 'Intertwined Lives'), joint quarterly journal of the Pakistan India Peoples' Forum for Peace and Democracy (PIPFPD) (link: https://www.scribd.com/document/650775756/ZUVA-Journal-of-Cross-Border-Conversations-April-May-2023-1-1)

Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)

Business Recorder Column, July 11, 2023

Strategic miscalculations regarding TTP

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Given the political and economic instability and uncertainty afflicting Pakistan, it is all too easy to forget the continuing biggest security challenge for the country: the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Fortunately we have been reminded once again of this threat by the publication in Dawn, July 10, 2023, of a report by journalists associated with The Khorasan Diary, a digital news and research platform. The report is a startling indictment of our security establishment’s illusions, mistakes and miscalculations on how to deal with the TTP after its ouster by military operations from the tribal areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and its subsequent finding safe havens across the border on Afghan soil.

First and foremost, and before we discuss the thrust of the report cited above, it may be useful to recall how the TTP came into being. Pakistan’s adventure in proxy warfare in Afghanistan since the 1970s (incipient at first, full blown later) eventually yielded from amongst the ranks of the Pashtun tribal areas’ denizens engaged in helping the Afghan mujahideen against the communist regime in Kabul and its (interventionist) Soviet partners, the embryonic local Taliban. What our strategists overlooked was the effect and influence Afghan mujahideen ideology and politics would have on the local Pashtun tribesmen. If the mujahideen phase of the Afghan wars may be considered the beginning of this influence, the 1990s launch by Pakistan of the Afghan Taliban after the Soviets had departed, the US-led west turned its back on the shattered country, and Afghanistan was plunged into a civil war, consolidated this influence into a definite religious extremist jihadi tendency. The Lal Masjid operation in Islamabad in 2007 was the trigger for the public announcement of the TTP as an armed jihadi group seeking to overthrow the Pakistani state and impose its own extremist version of an Islamic system on the country.

After 2007, the TTP boldly carried out terrorist actions, particularly in KP. The turning point in the response of the security establishment’s response to this threat, after repeated rounds of negotiations and agreements (always broken by the terrorists), came with the Army Public School Peshawar massacre of students and their teachers in December 2014. Although counterinsurgency military operations had been mounted before in the tribal areas to scotch terrorist outbreaks, an unprecedentedly heavy military campaign named Zarb-e-Azb exerted enough pressure on the terrorists holed up in KP’s tribal areas to force them to retreat across the border into Afghanistan, where they found safe havens courtesy the Afghan Taliban. I had commented on this development at the time by pointing out that we had merely succeeded in ‘exporting’ the problem, not scotched the snake. In fact the TTP’s retreat was accompanied by leaving behind sleeper cells inside Pakistan for a time when they would once again be needed.

With the 2021 withdrawal of the US-led west’s forces from Afghanistan and the seamless takeover by the Afghan Taliban, the report mentioned above details the illusions of our security establishment regarding the role the new Afghan rulers might play in helping resolve the TTP issue. The security establishment’s hopelessly wrong view that the Afghan Taliban were our friends (after all, had we not risked US ire by supporting them through a dual policy of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds?) and would assist in resolving the TTP conundrum. What we forgot perhaps was that even after 9/11, the Afghan Taliban ignored our advice, refused to hand over Osama bin Laden to the US, and preferred being ousted from power by the US invasion rather than seek a saner course. The Afghan Taliban in this early outcome indicated that though they owed a debt of gratitude to Pakistan for its help in coming to power in 1996, they were not amenable to advice from any quarter, including Islamabad, that militated against their ideology.

Had this earlier experience been learnt from, the miscalculation our security establishment made in relying on the Afghan Taliban to persuade the TTP to come to some reasonable, mutually acceptable solution would not have ensued. The Afghan Taliban-inspired negotiations process with the TTP in 2021 produced a short lived ceasefire, during which the TTP spread its organisational tentacles not only within the tribal areas and KP that were their original base, but in the Pashtun and even Baloch areas of Balochistan (where they had no presence before) and, alarmingly, in Punjab as well. In other words, the sincerity of the TTP negotiators can be judged by the fact that they used the interval of non-hostilities to reorganise and strengthen their preparations for a fresh launch of terrorist actions. These are by now mounting by the day.

It has been this writer’s long held view that religiously inspired extremist terrorists are not open to rational argument. They therefore cannot be negotiated with without incurring the bloody costs of the other side’s interpretation of such negotiations as reflecting the weakness of the state, which they then try to take advantage of to further their violent ends. Short of unconditional surrender or being wiped out, such fanatics cannot be reasoned with or accept any compromise. The track record of negotiations and agreements (inevitably broken by the terrorists) since 2004 points to this inevitable conclusion. Each time the state has sought to negotiate with such terrorists, it has suffered reverses.

Currently, the illusion that the Afghan Taliban owe us for helping them return to power in 2021 has been exposed for its hollowness. The Doha Agreements specified that the Afghan Taliban, after returning to power, would not host or allow any terrorist organisation threatening neighbouring countries to use its soil for such purposes. So much for the paper on which those Agreements were written and signed.

The threat from a resurgent TTP is greater than ever before. Our current political and economic troubles are an ideal landscape for it to expand its reach and terrorist actions. The security establishment has in April 2023 ‘disowned’ (its own initiated) talks with the TTP. Now the military, security establishment and present and future governments have to converge on the agenda of fighting the TTP terrorists to the finish. Otherwise, amongst all the other ‘good’ news, we may be doomed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Business Recorder Column July 4, 2023

 The more things change…

 

Rashed Rahman

 

After a three weeks sojourn in the UK, returning to Pakistan was a case of an overdose of déjà vu. But I must not run ahead and first deal with my impressions of London, which I visited after four years. London has changed. I encountered phenomena hitherto unthinkable in the past in the metropolis. First and foremost, the city no longer seemed as familiar as before. Central London was overcrowded with even more than the normal summertime tourists, English was heard as the exception on the streets, beggars were encountered on the street and on the tube and the homeless could be found sleeping on the street sidewalks. The cultural scene was uninteresting (at least to me), comprising tourist-oriented, commerce-driven films and theatre. The cost of living in the UK is touching new heights, with no end in sight to the trend. Strikes by various groups or communities of workers, doctors, nurses and what have you are daily fare. Central London has become so expensive that hardly anyone I knew or got to know this time lived there. Instead, they were comfortably ensconced in the suburbs and happy to commute into the centre when needed. One friend found the cost of living in London so painful she spent the summer in Italy instead!

I had the privilege of speaking at two events in London. The first was the Faiz Foundation London’s homage to Iqbal, Faiz and Sajjad Zaheer. The daughter of the last named, Noor Zaheer, was one of the speakers but dropped out at the last minute because of an illness in the family. That withdrawal afforded me more time as a speaker than was planned or perhaps I deserved. The second event was the Pakistan Literary Festival, held for the first time (but not, according to the organisers, the last) in London. This public exposure persuaded various groups of expatriate Pakistanis to invite me to a series of meetings, where some interesting discussions took place. It must be understood that our expatriate Pakistani brothers and sisters may have left Pakistan and done reasonably well for themselves in the UK, but Pakistan (and its concerns) have not left them. The sum total of these discussions yielded a fair crop of depression, hopelessness and helplessness despite a desire to contribute in whatever way possible to improve things at home. There were no magical solutions on offer, so we had to settle for the minimum need to keep a dialogue going between all our expat compatriots to seek answers to our country’s issues and contemplate a possible contribution from them.

Pakistan on return seemed stuck in time, with the same natter filling the airwaves and print media. In Pakistan, as we have learnt over time, the more things change, the more they remain the same. Nevertheless, without disturbing the elemental foundations of our ‘system’ (more on this below), some ‘change’ is visibly undeniable. After the May 9, 2023 ‘insurrection’, Imran Khan and the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) appear to have been ‘dealt with’ or at least well on the way to that end. The ground has been hollowed out from under Imran Khan’s feet through repression, leaving him seemingly dangling in the air. Add to this the flight from PTI of the fasli bateras (seasonal sparrows) to other parties or out of politics altogether, weakening the electoral prospects of the PTI in any future election, the party and Imran Khan’s strong narrative on the mainstream and social media virtually blanked out, a possible new King’s Party in the shape of Jahangir Tareen’s Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party emerging, and the scenario resembles nothing more than a return to business as usual.

The coalition Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government (and the powers-that-be) appear confident now of being able to conduct elections by year-end without too much concern regarding the likely now muted challenge from the PTI. This is in effect a return to the pre-2018 political landscape, in which the two mainstream (once sworn enemies) parties, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), are once again operating in tandem according to the Charter of Democracy (CoD) signed in 2006 by Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif in exile in London. The most critical portion of the CoD was the vow by both parties to eschew and combat being ‘played’ against each other by the establishment, as had been the norm in the 1990s. Despite (or perhaps because of) the tragic assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Rawalpindi in December 2007, the two parties can rightly claim credit for the first peaceful transfer of power through the ballot box in 2013 in Pakistan’s entire history.

In fact it can be argued that it was the rapprochement after the shared suffering at the hands of the military establishment that bonded the two parties. This bonding on the basis of adherence to parliamentary democracy’s minimum principles may have been the trigger for the establishment’s throwing its weight behind, and throwing all its eggs into Imran Khan’s basket. The pivot back to the PML-N and PPP was necessitated in turn by the amount of those eggs left sticking to the establishment’s face after the Imran Khan project imploded.

Pakistan now may be heaving a sigh of relief at the short term Standby Facility agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which may open the coffers of other multilateral and bilateral lenders. But it still promises to be a difficult, uphill, long haul for economic recovery. Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan looms after the PDM confab in Dubai and the law limiting disqualification to five years. But essentially the ‘system’ remains the same. The by now well entrenched pattern of the politics of collaboration (no marks for guessing with whom) and patronage has the country in its grip and the people by the throat. Interesting times ahead?

 

 

 

 

 

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