Business Recorder Column May 31, 2022

PTI: what next?

 

Rashed Rahman

 

The abrupt fizzling out of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf’s (PTI’s) long march can be explained by three factors. One, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) coalition government carried out pre-emptive actions against PTI workers, including arrests, and sealed the approaches to Islamabad and other major cities such as Lahore through the placement of containers and deploying police to prevent the protestors reaching their ultimate destination: D-Chowk, Islamabad. Two, partly because of these measures, partly because the PTI was unable to mobilise the 2-3 million protestors it had claimed would be on the roads, the planned sit-in (a la 2014) seemed a non-starter. Three, and perhaps the most important, the government called on the army in support of civil power under Article 245 to prevent the entry of the protestors into Islamabad’s high security Red Zone. Amidst rumours that the establishment had been in touch with Imran Khan the night before he reached Islamabad, the mere possibility of a clash with the army may have caused wisdom to finally descend on Imran Khan and persuaded him to beat an ignominious retreat.

Obviously the government could not have unilaterally announced the possible deployment of the army in aid of civil power. Clearly, the military was on board, not the least because a sit-in would have perpetuated the state of instability and chaos caused by the PTI’s campaign since Imran Khan’s government was removed through a no-confidence motion. This loss of the establishment’s support is the glaring difference between 2022 and 2014, whose outcomes are complete opposites.

While announcing the end of the march, Imran Khan gave the government a 6-day deadline to announce fresh elections or he would lead another long march ion Islamabad. That deadline is almost over. However, reports say the PTI leaders and workers are disheartened and confused after the previous long march debacle. In this atmosphere, it is possible, if not likely, that Imran Khan may not even be able to mobilise the numbers he managed for the failed long march, which ended as a damp squib.

As is his wont, Imran Khan is attempting to cover up the failure of the long march through bluster, false claims, and the repeated (ad nauseam) fable of a foreign conspiracy behind his removal. The daily diet of demagoguery from Imran Khan now includes the charge that Pakistan is preparing to recognise Israel. He bases this allegation on the revelation of an expatriate Pakistani NGO’s delegation having recently visited Israel and met the Zionist prime minister. However, Pakistan’s foreign office has punctured even this balloon by reiterating Pakistan’s support to the Palestinian cause. Similarly, Imran Khan now charges the present government with preparing to sell out Kashmir, ironically while praising the Indian Hindutva government of Narendra Modi for its ‘independent’ policy, in stark contrast with Pakistan’s ‘slavery’.

Imran Khan’s daily diet of fanciful, nonsensical and unbelievable rhetoric is losing its impact and efficacy. More and more people have been compelled to see this behaviour as an attempt to cover up his mistakes and incompetence while in power, and to dismiss them as an effort to woo the establishment (albeit in a contradictory manner), without whose (lost) support, Imran Khan’s chances of returning to power seem remote. The government has rolled back some of the draconian powers of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and amended the electoral ‘reforms’ introduced through an Ordinance by Imran Khan’s government. The NAB under Imran Khan and its departing head became controversial and lost credibility because of its perceived witch-hunt against the then opposition.

The government also seems to be veering towards the side of pre-emptive caution once again by mobilising the law enforcement agencies to ensure any succeeding PTI march is kept away from D-Chowk. Their resolve has received a fillip through the revelation of an audio leak purportedly reflecting Imran Khan’s desperate efforts to reconcile with Asif Zardari through their mutual close friend, Malik Riaz. The effort/s failed, clearing the way for the no-confidence move.

There are deeper lessons to be drawn from the present conjuncture, beyond the daily diet of statement and counter-statement by either side of the political divide. Imran Khan, once considered the golden boy of the establishment, has lost that lustre. The coalition government appears to now enjoy if not the same status, at least the comfort of being seen as the only viable option. The culture of seeking the support of the establishment in order to come to power, by fair means or foul, therefore seems stronger than ever. Of course the establishment is trying hard to be spared its blushes because of the mess it has created by claiming ‘neutrality’. But any half-baked observer of the Pakistani political scene knows this is a hollow sham. Pakistan continues to be in the grip of the dominant establishment, an uncomfortable perch from which the country cannot be envisaged as poised to convert into a genuine democracy under civilian supremacy, the norm in most parts of the world, and most certainly in developed, credible democracies.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Business Recorder Column May 24, 2022

The long and the short of it

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Imran Khan has finally announced his long march on Islamabad for May 25, 2022. He has dubbed it the ‘battle for real freedom’, leaving all and sundry perplexed what that means. Is there an ‘unreal’ freedom? Freedom from whom or what? In the absence of a coherent explanation for most of his pronouncements at the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf’s (PTI’s) rolling rallies, your guess is as good as mine. One thing however, is very clear. Imran Khan intends a sit-in once again in the federal capital (a la 2014) until the National Assembly (NA) is dissolved and the date for fresh elections is announced. It must be kept in mind though that sit-in 2.0 lacks the context of 2014 as well as the notable support of the establishment. In the same breath, he who castigated the establishment’s ‘neutrality’ in the crisis that eventually ended the PTI government, now demands it should remain neutral. Such flip-flops are regular fare from the former prime minister (PM).

It seems to be the season for rallies. In response to Imran Khan’s relentless rolling out of rally after rally, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)-led coalition government too has hit the rally trail. One could be excused for wondering whether we are in the middle of an election campaign, given the sound and fury emanating from either side’s public meetings. But this is not the only response of the government. News reports on May 23, 2022 spoke of a decision finally by the government to complete its term, which may allow it the space to take the tough economic decisions required and have enough time to ride out any public backlash. The government had been wrestling with the dilemma of finding the right path between the suggested alternatives of staying put and taking the politically costly decisions as soon as possible, or calling early elections, leaving these tough decisions and the IMF deal to an interim government. The triumphalism that accompanied the removal of the PTI government soured quickly when the present incumbents realised what they had landed in: no bed of roses. Interestingly, observers have noted the clever manner in which Pakistan’s Machiavelli, Asif Ali Zardari, has persuaded the PML-N and allies to go for the no-confidence motion, resulting in Imran Khan’s departure and Shahbaz Sharif and the PML-N left holding the baby of tough, unpopular decisions. There are rumours and speculations aplenty that Nawaz Sharif did not agree with this strategy, arguing instead for leaving Imran Khan in situ and letting him sink under the weight of his own incompetence by the end of his term.

Meanwhile Punjab is still not free of the PTI and allies’ shenanigans. Speaker Parvez Elahi pulled another fast one on May 23, 2022, hastily calling a session of the Punjab Assembly and taking just nine minutes to have the no-confidence motion against him ‘disposed of’ before the PML-N Members of the Punjab Assembly (MPAs) even had a chance to enter the Assembly hall. However, this legerdemain may not end Parvez Elahi’s troubles since the PML-N reintroduced the no-confidence motion by the evening of the same day. Punjab has effectively been without a government since Usman Buzdar resigned. Hamza Shahbaz Sharif’s election as Chief Minister (CM) Punjab became infructuous after the Supreme Court (SC) ruled the vote of any parliamentarian voting against the instructions of his/her party cannot be counted, and the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) unseated the 25 PTI MPAs who voted for Hamza Shahbaz Sharif. That means a fresh election for CM Punjab, with frantic moves afoot behind the curtain to garner the necessary majority.

Many commentators well versed in the law and Constitution have obliquely criticised the SC’s 3-2 ruling, which some say follows Article 63(a) to the letter (if not spirit), and others reopening the debate about individual parliamentarians’ freedom of conscience versus party discipline. Article 63(a) and other similar restraints against voting against the party whip were brought in to overcome the phenomenon of buying and selling parliamentarians’ votes, which is enshrined under the rubric the ‘Changa Manga’ culture. But in putting obstacles in the path of parliamentarians of easy virtue, we have instituted a form of party dictatorship that does not sit easily with democratic parliamentary norms and conventions. It is a sad comment when one casts doubts on the integrity of our elected representatives, but this is not without weight, given the track record.

PM Shahbaz Sharif has categorised Imran Khan’s present campaign as an attempt to instigate a civil war. Whether the latter intends any such thing and has the capacity to implement it or not, things are moving towards a clash between the two sides of the political divide. The government decided on May 23, 2022 to seal off all approaches to the federal capital in time honoured fashion by placing containers in the path of the anticipated long march columns. That could provide a flash point. Whether this can prevent the marchers from reaching the heart of Islamabad and pitching their ‘tent’ for an indefinite sit-in remains an open question. Blood could flow if neither side retreats from its maximum position.

Stepping back from the nitty-gritty of the current confrontation between the PTI and the government, it is an interesting study to try and ascertain the deeper meaning behind these events. Pakistan’s problem from day one has been the lack of a democratic system, those imposed systems claiming this honorific in our history having been long exposed and rejected. Even now, the two factions of the ruling elite at loggerheads do not subscribe to an agreed set of rules for the political game. The PTI in particular publicly claims radical aims that are contradicted by its statements claiming to be the best choice for the establishment to plumb for. The other side is led by two main parties, the PML-N and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). The former emerged from the womb of the General Ziaul Haq military dictatorship, but fell foul of the establishment three times. The PPP, whatever its radical past, has long ago surrendered to the ‘necessity’ of collaboration with the establishment. This leaves the people with pretty poor choices in the present conjuncture.

The people need a credible, effective, non-collaborationist movement for a genuine democracy. History awaits.

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

The May 2022 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out

The May 2022 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out. Link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com

Contents:

1. Tony Wood: Matrix of war.

2. Prof Farhat Haq: Book Review of Dr Sana Ashraf's Finding the Enemy Within: Blasphemy Accusations and Subsequent Violence in Pakistan.

Rashed Rahman

Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)

Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)

Business Recorder Column May 17, 2022

The victim card

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Pakistan’s history is witness to the fact that every prime minister turfed out of office by fair means or foul has fallen back on the ‘victim’ card. This is essentially a narrative that attempts to spin the argument that the removal was unjust, a conspiracy, and deserves unrestrained condemnation. Imran Khan has followed this time honoured ‘tradition’, with added twists. The former prime minister’s rhetoric is a ladder of escalating vituperation against the establishment, judiciary, Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), and of course the opposition coalition  that is now in the saddle.

If previously Imran Khan was ‘content’ to spin the US-led regime change conspiracy theory, today he stands on the martyrs’ pantheon of alleged targets for assassination. In all these escalating charges, the biggest absence of note is evidence or proof of the strident allegation/s. But the old adage about if you repeat a lie enough times and loudly enough seems to inform Imran Khan and company’s strident (critics argue imaginary) charges (almost one a day as the rallies steamroller continues along its one-eyed path).

Actually neither the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)-led coalition government nor the establishment seem inclined to do anything precipitate. This is not necessarily a consensus arrived at by these actors. The establishment may have had its hand forced to withdraw support from an increasingly wild-eyed Imran Khan unable to perform. For the moment at least, they had little choice but to accept back in the saddle the very opposition parties they had helped push to the wall through the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI)-led coalition government and the National Accountability Bureau (NAB). Frequent establishment protestations of ‘neutrality’ notwithstanding, one could be forgiven for speculating whether it is ‘wargaming’ its future options even as we speak.

As far as the PML-N-led coalition government installed by a historic no-confidence vote against Imran Khan is concerned, so far it is behaving contrary to the ‘speed’ associated with Prime Minister (PM) Shahbaz Sharif. One reason for this of course could be the difference between a prime minister and a chief minister’s job (Shahbaz Sharif earned kudos as a ‘doer’ in the latter capacity, although critics point to the anomalies, mistakes and waste associated with his haste). The other could be the parlous state of the economy, polity and society bequeathed by the disastrous Imran Khan government. The problem boils down to taking tough economic decisions such as raising petrol and oil prices in order to swing the IMF deal that promises to open all international and bilateral lending doors. However, since the price increase is so hefty, it is liable to extract a high political cost if imposed in one go. The likely strategy being mulled by the government is a gradual increase. What remains to be seen is whether the IMF will go along with this approach. All the difficult, politically costly decisions of the government would only become reality if all the coalition partners agree. The PML-N does not want to be at the receiving end of the almost inevitable public backlash alone. That is why, after returning from a cabinet moot with Nawaz Sharif in London, PM Shahbaz Sharif is holding consultations with his coalition allies on whatever decisions/course Nawaz Sharif has advised. If these consultations do not yield a consensus, the possible path to early elections may loom nearer.

While fresh elections would help restore the credibility and effectiveness of a returning Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition government and a full National Assembly (the present one is struggling to remain credible in the absence of the PTI opposition), the constraints outlined vis-à-vis fresh delimitations and other tasks by the ECP suggest the country will not be ready for polls before October 2022. Beyond that lies the 90-days tenure of an interim government under whose charge general elections would occur. This implies the earliest smooth general elections can be held is early 2023, provided of course the much touted electoral reforms beloved of the government occur within this timeframe.

Between now and then of course lies the Imran Khan conundrum. Critics think PTI should not have surrendered the platform of parliament, even if its main thrust was the street and public rallies. Since his ouster, Imran Khan has unleashed a string of such rallies and used the occasion to delineate (and escalate) his ‘conspiracy’ theory/ies. Are these theories finding resonance in the public at large? Not if the reports of dwindling numbers in the PTI rallies are any indication. Apart from the difficulties pertaining to sustaining an unending diet of public rallies, the impression is difficult to resist that Imran Khan is only preaching to the faithful at such events. The general public does not appear enthused sufficiently to lend numbers and volume to the PTI campaign.

Rallies aside, the Imran Khan seems oblivious to the situation at grassroots constituency level. PTI has never been very strong in this department, a natural consequence perhaps of its urban youthia support base. Electables, who helped PTI come close to a majority in the 2018 elections, have abandoned the party along with Jahangir Tareen and Aleem Khan. If Lahore provides any indication, the PTI sun has all but set in Punjab, or at the very least to be in decline. Without the help of the establishment, the PTI seems destined to drift (increasingly) on the margins of mainstream electoral politics.

The government seems inclined to wear out Imran Khan’s rallies thrust while quietly preparing possible cases against him and his cohorts that would bring into play the traditional political weaponisation of corruption and other charges. But the PML-led government does not want to end up in the cul-de-sac in which the PTI ended up because of its reliance on and carte blanche to NAB.

Consultations hopefully over, PM Shahbaz Sharif is expected to make a major policy statement today (May 17, 2022). Hopes for better times notwithstanding, don’t hold your breath.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Business Recorder Column May 10, 2022

‘Neutrality’s’ fallout

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Both military and civilian state institutions have come out with hard-hitting statements against attempts to “drag the army” into the present political quagmire, pass “defamatory” remarks against the military and its leadership, and spread chaos through political statements, comments and social media trends. The army, in the shape of ISPR, has taken “strong exception” to “intensified and deliberate attempts” to drag its name into the ongoing discourse by “some political leaders, journalists and analysts”. These attempts, according to the ISPR press release on May 8, 2022, were “manifest through direct, insinuated or nuanced references made by some political leaders, a few journalists and analysts on public forums and various communication platforms, including social media”. This is characterised as “extremely damaging” by ISPR.

News reports point to the repeated references by deposed prime minister Imran Khan to former ISI chief and current Peshawar Corps Commander Lieutenant General Faiz Hamid in his public meeting speeches. Imran Khan revealed last week that he did not want Lt. General Hamid to be removed as ISI chief because of the situation in Afghanistan and alleged opposition intrigue to topple his government (which came to pass eventually after a few hiccups through the perfectly legitimate instrument of a successful no-confidence motion). But the news reports surprisingly also point to Maryam Nawaz Sharif’s criticism of Lt. General Hamid in a rally. Even gadfly Sheikh Rashid’s call at a public meeting for the army to hold elections has been quoted. Controversial Punjab Governor Omar Sarfraz Cheema recently sought the army’s intervention to lead the province out of the political crises it is (supposedly) mired in.

The Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) has chimed in against Pakistani expatriates to refrain from spreading “chaos” inside the country while they live abroad. The FIA claims to have launched a crackdown on those allegedly running these online campaigns and is making arrests, although no details are as yet available. FIA threatened the perpetrators with placing their names on the Exit Control List and issuing red notices through Interpol. However, FIA’s reliance on the Pakistan Electronic Crimes Act 2016 against such ‘offences’ may not hold water after the Islamabad High Court struck down the draconian clauses of the Act and the FIA was forced by the government to withdraw its appeal from the Supreme Court against the ruling.

Why have the ‘big guns’ of the military and civilian institutions been turned on the perpetrators of the above mentioned ‘offences’? With due respect to our armed forces, they are faced with the chickens of their past intervention/s coming home to roost. The establishment is red-faced after the spectacular failure and eventual deposing of their Imran Khan ‘experiment’. Safeguards were in place in the form of leaving the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) dangling just short of a majority in the controversial (some say rigged) general elections of 2018. This left the PTI critically dependent on its coalition allies. But in less than four years in power, the PTI government not only alienated these allies, they even caused a revolt in their own ranks. Bereft of its small majority, the boycotting PTI government was felled by the barest of margins through the delayed no-confidence vote.

The irony is that whereas the establishment was routinely accused by the opposition of bringing Imran Khan to power as a ‘selected’ prime minister, it is now faced with the ousted PTI’s campaign against it, the central complaint of which is rejection of the so-called ‘neutrality’. Given the history of military interventions in our politics, overt and covert, the neutrality narrative is swimming against the tide. However, in the greater cause of political and democratic stability and consolidation, the establishment should be encouraged not to abandon this new-found neutrality but to embrace it as the heart of its role in national affairs.

Any modern, democratic state requires the contenders for power and office to agree the rules of the political game. This has largely been missing from our lives and ‘system’, permitting not only repeated crises in the transition from one government to the next, but also leaving room for overt and covert interventions by the ubiquitous establishment. It is only the elected parliamentarians that can forge a consensus on such rules. But given the character of the PTI and its current aggressive narrative, all the reservations about the PTI’s contempt for parliament and democracy leave little room for hope in this regard.

Way back in the 1990s, after General Ziaul Haq’s demise, a faint hope had stirred that the country had seen the back of military dictatorship and turned towards a hopeful introduction of parliamentary democracy. But the toppling, by fair means and foul (including foremost the 8^thAmendment), of successive elected governments for one reason or another put paid to those hopes, a denouement crowned by General Musharraf’s 1999 coup. The latter’s departure once again fondled hope in our breasts that ‘normal’ democracy would now finally prevail. And the first ever transition through the ballot box did arrive in 2013, only to be soon overtaken by the Panama Papers disqualification of Nawaz Sharif and by 2018, the ‘facilitated’ entry of Imran Khan into the corridors of power.

Imran Khan has no one but himself to blame for the fate that overtook him. He is neither the first, nor likely to be the last of such ‘experiments’, the claim of establishment ‘neutrality’ notwithstanding. But casting a glance back over our history and the disasters accompanying all establishment interventions could yield a rich reservoir of experience to learn from. If the establishment were to burn some midnight oil on this task, the hopeful amongst us (and there are still a stubborn few) would still like to see the establishment remaining ‘neutral’ and in fact stepping back to allow the democratic political process to play out. There is no short cut or better solution to the crises afflicting Pakistan (some have characterised it as a state in perpetual crisis).

Politics is often described as the art of the possible. In the current scenario, the hand of the establishment was forced to abandon an increasingly haywire Imran Khan and allow the previously castigated political opposition to return to power in an unwieldy coalition facing grave challenges. If the establishment learns the right lessons from the review of our history suggested above, perhaps the incorrigible optimists amongst us, threatened species or no, may still look forward to a better future. But don’t lay any bets on it just yet.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com