Business Recorder Editorial April 30, 2020

NFC Award

The National Finance Commission (NFC) Awards have a chequered history. Of the nine NFCs since 1973, only four were able to deliver Awards. Five, including the current ninth one, failed to do so because of a lack of consensus amongst the federal and provincial governments. Since the ninth NFC’s term expired over the weekend, now a fresh, 10^thNFC has to be constituted. The Ministry of Finance has moved a summary to President Dr Arif Alvi for this purpose. What holds the field at the moment is the 7^thNFC Award dating back to 2010, which expired in 2015 but has been extended every year since because of the lack of consensus amongst the stakeholders. Under this 7^thNFC Award, the Centre receives 42.5 percent of the divisible pool, while the remaining 57.5 percent is distributed amongst the provinces on the formula of shares being determined as follows: 82 percent on the basis of population, 10.3 percent on the basis of poverty and backwardness, five percent on revenue collection and 2.7 percent on inverse population density. The 7^thNFC Award had led to a 10 percent increase in the shares of the provinces in federal taxes. With the 18^thAmendment having abolished the Concurrent List and devolved many subjects to the provinces, the expectation was that the federal government would cut its cloth accordingly by increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio and abolishing a number of federal ministries that were now provincial subjects, such as education and healthcare. However, successive federal governments since, including the present incumbents, have failed on both counts. The tax-to-GDP ratio remains stubbornly at the decade-old figure of 9.3 percent because of the failure of the Federal Bureau of Revenue (FBR) to enhance tax collection, while the defunct federal ministries remain in existence and contribute to a large federal cabinet (50 members after the latest cabinet reshuffle in the Information Ministry) with its attendant high cost. Instead, the present federal government of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf led by Prime Minister Imran Khan has been applying increasing pressure on the provinces to either give up part of their divisible pool shares or take on additional expenditure responsibilities. But this is unlikely to pass muster with the provinces. If so, the impasse seems set to continue.

The federal government has also floated the idea of revisiting, with the provinces on board, the 18^thAmendment. This too has not found favour with the opposition, particularly the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), whose ‘baby’ the 18^thAmendment is. To further muddy the waters, the provincial finance commissions to be formed to frame an intra-provincial finances distribution formula for the districts have yet to see the light of day. In their absence, and with the local bodies dysfunctional, this distribution of finances down to the district level remains unfulfilled. The 2010 7^thNFC Award achieved consensus by taking all governments, federal and provincial, on board. But the current federal government of the PTI has shown little or no inclination to reach out to the provincial governments, particularly the PPP government in Sindh, on this or for that matter any other issue. The PTI’s mantra of labelling the opposition leadership ‘crooks’ and ‘looters’ continues, albeit not so stridently as before owing to the pandemic crisis. However, the atmosphere having been sullied before and after coming to power of the PTI in 2018, the federal government would have to do an extraordinary amount of fence-mending and soothing ruffled feathers before the opposition may even be willing to listen to the Centre’s concerns regarding the NFC Award and the 18^thAmendment. The flaw in the PTI’s approach has been not to recognize that what served it well while in opposition may not be the right note to sound after it is in office. Without a minimum of courtesy and respect for the opposition, both the NFC Award and any discussion on the 18^thAmendment seem destined to remain in limbo.

Business Recorder Column April 28, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic, clerics, and terrorism

Rashed Rahman

The whole ongoing kerfuffle about how to combat the coronavirus pandemic is not unique to Pakistan. Even the developed world is groping its way through the fog of incomprehension, misconception and feeble, halting measures. In Pakistan, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government led by Imran Khan has exhibited the kind of timid, half-hearted lockdowns that may end up falling between two stools: neither saving lives nor livelihoods. So far, a dreaded complacency may have kept in regarding the relatively low infections and deaths in Pakistan because of the pandemic. The experts and thinking souls fear the official statistics may not be reflecting the real level of infections or even fatalities as Pakistan does not have the kind of universal monitoring system or adequate healthcare facilities that could inspire confidence in official handouts.

Facts on the ground are pointing towards the looming dangers. Unlike some badly hit western countries such as Italy, Spain, the UK and US, where the curve of infections appears to be flattening if not dropping because of strict lockdowns and gearing up of their healthcare systems, Pakistan is witnessing a rapid upward trajectory of coronavirus infections, not from returning travellers as was believed to be the case (and source) of the spread initially, but from local transmission. The authorities have indicated 81 percent of cases have been caused by such local transmission. Given the inadequacy of our testing system, we simply do not know if there are asymptomatic potential infectors amongst us. The government has announced a Test, Trace and Quarantine (TTQ) policy, under which the federal government has provided thousands of names and addresses to the provinces to apply TTQ to the contacts of confirmed cases.

Meanwhile, a restless and needy populace is practicing the lockdowns and social distancing largely in the breach. The ‘concession’ to our clerics for holding Ramazan congregations in the mosques is being seen by medical experts as a mistake out of step with what a number of Muslim countries are doing to safeguard their people. One report says 80 percent of Punjab’s mosques are violating the Taraweehand other congregations’ social distancing rules agreed with the government. The problem is that the clerics’ sense of entitlement since the General Ziaul Haq days and ability to hold any government hostage because of their street power causes weakness in the knees and spine of every government since then. Imran Khan’s government is no exception. It may even have not-so-secret sympathies with the clerics and their benighted ideas.

To illustrate such ideas, two examples should suffice. Lal Masjid’s Maulana Aziz continued to defy the restrictions on Friday prayer congregations until on April 24, 2020, the authorities finally found the courage to block the Masjid for the Friday congregation. Maulana Tariq Jamil, highly thought of by none other than Imran Khan himself, broke all records of stupidity during a prayer at the end of the Ehsaas Telethon presided over by the prime minister. He blamed our coronavirus troubles on the alleged shamelessness of our women in wearing revealing dress and called the media “liars”. Later, on a TV show, he apologised for the latter as a ‘slip of the tongue’ but retained a meaningful silence on the former. Condemnation from human, women and free media rights defenders followed, but this is unlikely to dent Maulana Tariq Jamil’s soaring fortunes. The state, particularly the deep state, continues to treat the clerics with kid gloves, holding them as a reserve army against the liberal, democratic, progressive forces and in case some fresh jihad recruitment might be needed.

China has shown the way a complete lockdown can relatively quickly scotch the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. But countries like Pakistan do not have China’s healthcare and social security systems to sustain people during strict lockdowns. Hence we have dithered and will probably end up with the worst of both worlds: loss of life and livelihoods. Medical experts’ warnings that a half-hearted or ‘soft’ lockdown will extract a higher cost in this regard have fallen on deaf official ears.

While Pakistan (and the world) have been distracted if not totally absorbed by the challenges thrown up by the coronavirus pandemic, the terrorists we thought were a thing of the past have quietly been attempting to revive their movement through a series of attacks and clashes with the military in erstwhile FATA. On April 26, 2020, two soldiers and a terrorist were killed in a gunfight in the Mirali subdivision of North Waziristan. On April 25, 2020, four soldiers were killed when terrorists ambushed a security patrol in Dattakhel tehsil of North Waziristan. The terrorists lost seven men in the ensuing clash. At least 12 security personnel have been killed in clashes and IED explosions in April 2020. This is the nightmare scenario of a resurgence of terrorist activity per se and taking advantage of the focus shifting to the pandemic that informed observers have been warning of.

Whatever the future of the world may look like once the coronavirus pandemic is hopefully over, unfettered, globalised capitalism cannot be allowed to rape nature at the expense of threatened and extinct species and the Earth itself. This development has put the future of mankind too at risk. There has to be a turn now to putting people first, profits second.

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Business Recorder Editorial April 28, 2020

Shooting the messenger

Maulana Tariq Jamil has acquired the enviable status of a ‘star’ Maulvi. But what the honourable cleric forgot perhaps the other day was that with ‘power’ comes responsibility. Maulana Tariq Jamil had uttered remarks during the dua(prayer) at the end of the Ehsaas Telethon chaired by prime minister Imran Khan that have raised a storm of protest. First he called the media “liars”. Then he spun a story about some owner of a media channel who had asked him for advice and was told to prevent incorrect news from being aired. But the voluble Maulana did not stop there. He then went on to cast aspersions on a large number of so-called ‘scantily dressed women’ who, according to him, were responsible for the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, such behavior being responsible for the ‘wrath’ being visited on the country. Human rights defenders such as the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP), Asma Jahangir Legal Aid Cell (AGHS), federal minister Shireen Mazari and others condemned the callous and demeaning remarks about women, particularly at a time when, due to the lockdown, women were faced with a rise in the cases of domestic violence and honour crimes. On a subsequent TV show, Maulana Tariq Jamil attempted to offer an unconditional apology and a mea culpa by ascribing it to a ‘slip of the tongue’. But whereas he named in the process several anchors and clerics, despite repeated questioning he failed to divulge the name of the media owner. Maulana Tariq Jamil enjoys the support of Imran Khan, who himself weighed into the controversy by accusing some sections of the media of not conducting their journalism on the basis of facts, and suffering decline as a result. This wisdom was delivered at a meeting with a group of YouTube channel and social media activists. The meeting could be viewed by the suspicious as an attempt to combat the generally bad press the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government has been receiving since it came to power through sympathetic internet and social media platforms.

Imran Khan is following a familiar trajectory. While in opposition, political leaders lean on and are often full of praise for the media. Imran Khan’s rise owes a great deal to the media support and coverage accorded to him over the years in opposition. However, when such leaders come to power, they begin to complain about the ‘factual inaccuracies’ of the same media they never tired of praising earlier. In a still immature democracy such as ours, the understanding of the role of the media is clouded by confusion and misconceptions. First and foremost, the general run of journalism has taken to heart the formulation that the media is the ‘fourth pillar of the state’, implying a symbiotic relationship with the state and its institutions that is wholly false. The confusion arose because of a mistaken interpretation of the description of the media as the ‘fourth estate’, a nomenclature that arose during the French Revolution in the 18^thcentury, when three ‘estates’ were represented in parliament and the fourth, the press, was so dubbed owing to its growing influence. However, the fourth estate evolved as a public watchdog, whose job was to keep an eye on and safeguard the public interest. This naturally and inevitably often brought it into conflict with the powers-that-be but the media in democratic societies did not shrink from criticising incumbent governments. In weak quasi-democracies like ours, the picture is quite different. Of course there are black sheep in our media too. But the overwhelming majority of our journalists attempt to do their job without fear or favour, objectively, and based on the facts. Responsible editors are open to acknowledging mistakes due to human error. But there is no widespread carrying of lies or invented facts in our media. In fact it could be argued that journalists attract the unwanted attentions of the deep state precisely when they report the facts. The government has the option of calling out individual journalists or media houses for inadvertent misreporting, but creating an atmosphere of a virtual witch-hunt is neither conducive to the health of the media, democracy, or even the incumbent government itself.

Business Recorder Editorial April 25, 2020

End of honeymoon?

It seems the ‘honeymoon’ that was in evidence between the Gulf states and India in recent years may have run its course. There is a marked change of mood and tone in the UAE and Saudi Arabia towards India on account of anti-Muslim sentiment and worse that has accompanied the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) stint in power. The bonhomie that may well be a thing of the past was premised on the promised bonanza of opportunities that the huge Indian economy and market represented. Anti-Muslim vigilante violence in India and the (pre-coronavirus) months-long lockdown in Indian Held Kashmir (IHK) had been a major cause of concern in Pakistan for some time. Now, with the coronavirus pandemic gripping the world, its fallout in India against its Muslim population has brought out the worst aspects of communal-religious profiling and hatred. Comments by expatriate Indians in the Gulf and elsewhere and in India itself have irritated both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, although the displeasure has not yet found official expression but been left to prominent figures in the ruling families and officials to voice. In March 2020, right-wing Hindu nationalists, including some ruling party politicians, blamed the Tableeghi Jamaat for spreading the coronavirus pandemic because of their congregations. Reports speak of Muslim patients of the coronavirus being segregated from Hindus and in some cases denied treatment in hospitals, leading to some deaths. Growing incidents of violence against Muslims accused of being the source of COVID-19 have added to the tally of attacks against Muslims on the spurious counts of cow slaughter, supporting the opposition parties (e.g. the Aam Aadmi Party’s election win in Delhi not long ago), opposing the Modi government’s Citizens Registration Act, etc. All this was added all over India to the continuing repression and lockdown imposed on IHK last year.

Not only prominent figures in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have condemned the anti-Muslim ‘othering’ and violence against innocent Muslims, the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) too has adopted a condemnatory resolution, something unthinkable without Saudi prompting and support, given Riyadh’s dominant influence in the OIC. Pakistan has been attempting quietly to convey its concerns over the lockdown in Kashmir and the violence against and repression of Muslims in India for some time. In August 2019, Pakistan discreetly protested to the UAE the conferring of that country’s highest civil award to Modi, but the UAE chose to completely ignore the message. Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman visited India after Pakistan and called Modi his elder brother, but it is not known if Islamabad cautioned Riyadh against flirting with a hardline leader and proponent of Hindutva who happens to be in power in New Delhi. Nevertheless, a reading of the tea leaves suggests the Gulf states may well be leaving their ‘love fest’ with India behind in the light of the anti-Muslim trends on view in that country. Pakistan needs the goodwill and material support of the Gulf states and has a huge stake in the Pakistani labour employed there. It must therefore play its cards deftly but discreetly without publicly embarrassing our Gulf allies by showing them their embarrassed and sheepish faces in the mirror for their past laudatory praise of Modi and his extremist saffron brigade government. Inside India, the best and most principled voices are being raised against the damage being inflicted on the body and image of an India hitherto widely admired for its secular and democratic system. The founding fathers of a modern, independent India may well be turning in their graves at what is being wrought even while fresh graves await the Muslims of India for no other crime than their faith.

Business Recorder Editorial April 23, 2020

Zakat, Baitul Mal transparency

A five member bench of the Supreme Court (SC) headed by Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Gulzar Ahmed hearing a suo motu case regarding measures taken by the federal and provincial governments to combat the coronavirus pandemic has asked some pertinent and perhaps long overdue questions regarding transparency in distribution of Zakatand Baitul Malfunds. The court directed the authorities to consult the Council of Islamic ideology and Mufti Taqi Usmani, an Islamic scholar and former judge of the Shariat Appellate bench of the SC, on whether such funds could be utilised for paying salaries of the staff and day-to-day expenses of the organisation responsible for disbursing such funds to the needy. The SC also sought information on how Zakatand Baitul Malfunds are deducted, the criteria for selecting beneficiary families, the breakdown of the amount paid to them and the administrative expenses incurred for the purpose. The court questioned how the amount collected through people’s contribution could be used for foreign trips, TA/DA or salaries. The SC directed the federal and provincial governments to submit a comprehensive report on the distribution of Zakatand Baitul Malfunds. The CJP observed that billions of rupees had been collected by these governments but the distribution process was not transparent. He went on to remark that something fishy was going on since the funds were supposed to go to needy people and were not meant for the visits and entertainment expenses of officials. Justice Umar Ata Bandial, a member of the bench, said that the court has been informed that the federal government collects Rs nine billion in Zakat,which is later shared with the provinces, but details of the disbursement had not been provided. He was of the view that the federal government should conduct an audit of the fund, a fiduciary responsibility that could not be seen as encroaching on provincial autonomy.

In our system of government, things have a peculiar way of being twisted in negation of the original purpose. Zakatdeductions from people’s savings accounts with banks were instituted by General Ziaul Haq, well known for his excessive Islamic zeal. This was a change from the way people traditionally contributed Zakatto needy people in their private capacity as enjoined by Islam. However, soon after the promulgation of the deduction system, Pakistan’s ahlay-tasheewere up in arms regarding their belief that Zakatcould not be forcibly deducted from such accounts. An exception was then adopted to exempt Shias’ accounts from such deduction at source beyond the limit set every year on the first day of Ramazan.Over time, this allowance came to be used by many people through declarations to their banks that they were ahlay-tasheeand therefore their accounts should be exempted from such deductions. Later, an SC judgement held that Zakatbeing a voluntary contribution, any account holder was within his/her rights to move their bank not to deduct such amounts as they preferred to contribute Zakatprivately and voluntarily rather than through the official fund. Not all account holders may be aware of this dispensation, which argues therefore for banks including in their account opening forms a clause asking whether the account holder would prefer exemption from deduction of Zakatfrom their accounts. Similarly, existing account holders should be informed and offered this option. People generally are wary of government-controlled charity funds precisely on the grounds the SC has raised: transparency and appropriate use. Long ago, Zakatcommittees were formed to ascertain needy families requiring help from Zakatand Baitul Malfunds. But like so many dispensations at the grassroots level, they seem to have disappeared without a trace, raising the very question the SC has asked: how are the needy identified today and why are such funds being spent on things other than disbursement to the deserving? While the SC has demanded answers that will hopefully bring a measure of transparency and appropriateness to the collection and disbursement of Zakatand Baitul Malfunds, similar concerns, as expressed by the SC, surround the billions of rupees spent to combat the coronavirus pandemic about which there is little or no information regarding the process and manner of spending these funds too.

Business Recorder Column April 21, 2020

Healthcare, social security systems needed

Rashed Rahman

With all its tragedies, unprecedented complexities and uncertainties, the coronavirus pandemic should focus minds on the inadequacies in our healthcare and social security systems that need rectification at the earliest. Consider.

The Pakistan Tehreek-Insaaf (PTI) government led by Imran Khan has been seen wringing its hands in despair at the thought that the logic of meeting the unprecedented challenge posed by the pandemic, i.e. a total lockdown, would condemn millions of the poor to starvation. Laudable as the concern is, the hesitation to act firmly and instead allow an incremental loosening of the partial lockdown, including allowing certain industries, such as construction and textiles, to reopen, runs the risk of falling between two stools. On the one hand, the government’s plan to revive these industries to offer continued employment and meet certain needs (exports in the case of textiles) faces considerable complexity. The anomalies that are likely to arise are already being spelt out by knowledgeable commentators on economic affairs. On the other hand, the picture emerging of threats to employment and the payment of salaries despite the revival of such industries makes for sorry reading.

The government’s directives to industry and commerce to retain employees and pay their salaries during the lockdown have largely been practiced in the breach. This should not come as a surprise when we reflect on the inadequacies of the factory inspections system, meant to ensure industries do not violate workers’ rights. There are only 542 factory inspectors throughout Pakistan, who are expected to look after 350,000-400,000 factories in the country. Even if the factory inspection regime were followed to the letter (which is conspicuous by its absence), this implies an average of about 740 factories per inspector. The annual inspections enjoined by our laws could at best be carried out every 740 years if a particular factory has been inspected today. However, these annual inspections have lapsed and are virtually non-existent since 1981.

This gaping hole in our regulation of labour laws and rights allows industrialists to operate under a contract labour system introduced during General Ziaul Haq’s rule that obviates any and all labour rights, including collective bargaining. A recent study shows that 80 percent of factories are unregistered. Of the total labour force, 75-85 percent is ‘informal’ (e.g. no letters of appointment). Despite the government’s well-meaning effort to keep the wheels of the economy moving, many textile factories are shut and their workers have either been fired or only partially paid. The industry bigwigs expect relief from public funds from the government to continue functioning, going to the extent of asking the government to pick up the tab for unpaid salaries during the lockdown.

The facts and figures regarding our working class make for troubling reading. Of the total working class, only four percent are unionised, while 93 percent toil long hours below the minimum wage without even the basic necessities such as toilets and clean drinking water. For women workers in the garments industry, conditions are even worse, including no childcare or maternity leave. Daily wagers in the industrial sector constitute 90 percent of the labour force, hired through labour contractors who fire workers on the spot if they ask for even their legitimate rights.

The industrialist community does not wish to share the costs and burdens of working people in this time of corona. As is its wont, it prefers to pass the buck onto the government to shoulder these responsibilities. Corporate social responsibility may have emerged as a buzzword in recent times, but in Pakistan at least, an essentially rentier capitalist class unabashedly puts its profits before people and their welfare.

As for healthcare, the less said the better. The public healthcare system has been glaringly exposed during this crisis. Its normal functioning was an area of concern before; its inadequacies in the face of the current pandemic can only evoke alarm. By some happenstance, the numbers of infected and deaths due to the coronavirus in Pakistan were reported as fairly low for weeks after the pandemic struck (below two percent). However, in recent days the count of fatalities is creeping up to two percent and the trend shows an incremental increase. This of course is based on the official figures, which may well be understated since our testing and detection regimes are woefully inadequate, bad enough in the large cities, virtually non-existent in the rest of the rural and small town hinterland.

Every forecast is pointing to a severe economic downturn if not recession globally. Pakistan too is headed in that direction. Yet reports speak of a rise in defence expenditure of about four percent to Rs 1.2 trillion, while development expenditure will fall by 34 percent to Rs 953 billion. If one fact is needed to point towards the skewed priorities we have been pursuing throughout our history, this is it. At this momentous moment in history, our ruling elite (dominated by the military) thinks it can carry on in business-as-usual fashion. Their inability to comprehend the risks of a people reduced to supplicants for state or private charity (an affront to any self-respecting human being) getting so angry and frustrated with an unfeeling system that only operates in the interests of the wealthy and powerful that they could conceivably revolt against its iniquities only is matched by the indifference towards and oppression of the French people in the 18^thcentury that led to the storming of the Bastille.

Before we reach such a pass, which in the obtaining circumstances of no organised force able to lead such a revolt in a positive direction could conceivably lead to anarchy and social breakdown, thinking minds should dwell on crafting a universal healthcare and social security architecture, paid for mainly by employers’ contributions fixed by law, that could tide working people through such catastrophic times as well as ensure their survival and well being in relatively better times. And while we are at it, add universal education, free or at affordable nominal fees, to unleash the untapped creative energies of the vast majority of our people. In other words, a welfare state, so beloved of social democrats.

The alternative, history teaches, if this is not done (inevitably at the cost of shaving defence expenditure to lean and mean proportions), could well turn out to be a bloody revolution.

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Business Recorder Editorial April 16, 2020

SC’s suo motu notice

In a first for the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Gulzar Ahmed-led Supreme Court (SC), suo motu notice was taken of the federal and provincial governments’ handling of the COVID-19 pandemic after reports sought from these governments on the issue failed to satisfy the apex court. During the hearing of the case on April 13, 2020, the SC assailed the federal and Sindh governments for lacking a clear vision and warned of looming chaos and anarchy if extreme lockdowns were implemented without a proper backup plan to meet people’s needs. The SC observed that a crisis of this magnitude demanded consensus and coordination at a national level, but here the federal and provincial governments appear to be going in different directions and the country lacked a unifying national leadership. The Sindh government was directed to provide details in a comprehensive report on how it had distributed Rs eight billion (a figure that the Sindh government has expressed ignorance as to its origin) as relief among the people of Sindh. The Punjab government too attracted the attention of the SC when it overturned the former’s ban on inter-provincial movement as against the Constitution. Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Health Dr Zafar Mirza came close to attracting a directive of the SC for his removal on the grounds of incompetence and alleged dirty hands but was saved by the Attorney General of Pakistan (AGP) Khalid Javed Khan’s plea that such an order at this juncture would disrupt the ongoing drive against the pandemic. The ‘army’ of special assistants and advisers that had swelled the size of the federal cabinet to 49 members also attracted the ire of the SC given the cost of maintaining this bloated cabinet in the middle of a dire health and economic crisis, with, in the SC’s view, many cabinet members allegedly not enjoying a clean past but rather having criminal records and proving incompetent. The court could only see interminable meetings at the top without any evidence of work on the ground. Legislation to overcome the pandemic crisis and parliament, the SC observed, were conspicuous by their absence. Lockdowns were being resorted to without realising the impact or having proper arrangements in place to assist those unable to work and lacking the means to sustain themselves. At the same time, while attention was focused on the coronavirus pandemic, it was not clear what the impact on the health of people with other afflictions had been. The CJP remarked that the government should have taken steps to induct big manufacturers into the production of critically needed medical equipment (e.g. ventilators) and carried out testing free of cost.

While the SC will resume proceedings in this case on April 20, 2020, the issues and questions it has raised reflect general disquiet amongst swathes of public opinion on the handling of arguably the greatest health crisis in living memory. First and foremost, what emerges as a rational course is to resist the temptation to listen to the growing tribe of ‘experts’ on the coronavirus pandemic, relying instead on real experts in the field such as epidemiologists. Admittedly, even such experts do not as yet have all the answers as far as this particular pandemic is concerned, but at least this course avoids the distraction of speculative or even false prognoses and ‘cures’. Then of course, the nettle has to be firmly grasped, without indecisiveness or shilly-shallying, regarding the delicate balance to be maintained between health concerns and the economy. Of course this is not a simple binary, since lives and livelihoods are equally at stake. Too draconian a lockdown by now runs the risk, as the SC has hinted, of hungry and desperate people feeling compelled to defy the government’s restrictions, which could produce clashes with, and riots against, the police and other security forces deployed for this purpose. Criticism of the federal and provincial governments for a late and inadequately thought through response (with the Sindh government being lauded for the best performance so far) no longer is the need of the day. What is required is pulling all governments, federal and provincial, and political and social forces together to combat the pandemic with the best possible expert advice available.

Business Recorder Editorial April 10, 2020

The shoe now is on the other foot

Prime Minister Imran Khan’s consistent theme in opposition and after coming to power in 2018 has been the eradication of corruption. How embarrassing then for him and his Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government to have its own ministers and allies named in the two investigative reports on the sugar and wheat crisis that overtook the country starting from 2019. According to the report, the federal government under Imran Khan was persuaded to act in the interests of sugarcane growers when it transpired that the sugar mill owners were not lifting sugarcane on the plea that they had surplus stocks of sugar. The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) and the federal cabinet on Imran Khan’s direction then allowed the export of surplus sugar on condition the local price would not rise. Not only that, the federal cabinet having declared that it had no funds for providing a subsidy for these exports, which in any case has now been devolved to the provinces after the 18^thAmendment, the Punjab government lavished a Rs three billion subsidy on the sugar mills exporters. But the consequences of these decisions were not clear to the government and surprised it when the domestic price of sugar rose dramatically over the last over a year. For all the brave initial talk of not allowing the domestic price to rise, the government, despite Imran Khan’s bluster, proved unable to control the market forces that produced an almost 50 percent rise in sugar prices. Two days after the report was made public on April 5, 2020, Imran Khan reshuffled his cabinet, shifting around ministers named as major beneficiaries in the report and ‘removing’ Jahangir Khan Tareen from his role of overseeing the government’s agriculture policies. Though the reshuffle of the portfolios may seem like an appropriate response to the scandal, it smacks of nothing more than a desperate initial gambit to save the government’s blushes. Imran Khan has promised strict action against those found responsible for the scandal after the detailed forensic report is presented on April 25, 2020. Meanwhile reports of ‘threats’ by the sugar cartel to remove all sugar from the market if the report’s findings are acted upon (against this very cartel) have been dismissed with a warning by Imran Khan to desist or strict action will be taken against such elements.

The anti-corruption mantra of Imran Khan has now landed him in a fix. If he does not act swiftly and without fear or favour, all the accusations flying around that his government, with the help of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and other federal agencies has been conducting a witch-hunt against the opposition leadership will have found fresh credibility. Hoist by his own petard of an anti-corruption campaign that has now brought his own party leaders and allies into the dock, Imran Khan faces nothing less than a make-or-break test of credibility. In the first place, the cabinet reshuffle, according to the religious party leaders, is little more than an eyewash, an assertion that some may find not without a ring of truth. In the second place, if appropriate administrative and legal actions, the two correctives advised by the report, are not carried out in a transparent, thoroughgoing and effective manner, Imran Khan and his PTI-led coalition government will find themselves pushed against the wall and accused of hypocrisy. The old saying, those who live by the sword die by the sword should not translate in the present instance into those who live by an anti-corruption mantra dying because of that same mantra if they fail to grasp the nettle firmly of acting against corruption and influence-peddling in their own ranks without pulling any punches.

Business Recorder Editorial April 3, 2020

Feeble steps forward

After a series of stops and starts, the implementation of the prisoners exchange agreed between the US and Taliban in the peace deal signed in Doha, Qatar on February 29, 2020 seems about to begin. The Taliban had originally planned to send a 10-member team to monitor and help identify the 5,000 prisoners held by the Afghan government and scheduled for release. But the Covid-19 pandemic forced a reduction of the team to just three members. There is no word whether the team travelled from Doha (unlikely given the stoppage of international flights and despite the assistance of the International Red Cross) or from within Afghanistan. Whatever the case, this is the first time a Taliban team has surfaced in Kabul since the November 2001 overthrow of the Taliban government by the invading US forces. There was no word from the Afghan government on the team’s arrival in Kabul, which in itself speaks volumes. It may be recalled that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent meetings in Kabul with both rival claimants to the Afghan presidency, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, failed to persuade them to work together. This so incensed the US that Pompeo announced an immediate aid cut of $ one billion, with more to come if the two rivals did not reconcile. The aid blow seems to have been enough to cleave through all the roadblocks to the prisoner exchange, including Ashraf Ghani’s proposed staggered release (which the Taliban rejected and on which Washington maintained a studied silence), a divided administration in Kabul, and the so far Taliban refusal to talk to or deal with the Afghan government. While the Taliban team basks in a luxury hotel in Kabul, the issue of the 21-member negotiating team put forward for the intra-Afghan dialogue by the Afghan government also enjoyed a new found, rare, consensus. Abdullah Abdullah in a series of tweets put his weight behind the negotiating team. Mike Pompeo too spoke positively of it by calling it fairly broad and inclusive. And most importantly, the Taliban were expected to soften their stance of rejection of the Afghan government negotiating team now that even Abdullah Abdullah has endorsed it (implying it is a team carrying the consensus of the Afghan ruling structure as a whole) and the prisoner exchange is poised to begin. What is not clear so far however is how and when the 1,000 prisoners held by the Taliban will be released, who will monitor that process, etc, i.e. the reciprocal part of the prisoner exchange agreement.

The US has learnt the hard way the cost in resources and human lives (Afghan more than American) of invading and occupying a country like Afghanistan, with a well deserved reputation as the ‘graveyard of empires’, and then pursuing the hope-triumphs-over-reality shibboleth of so-called ‘nation building’. In Afghanistan as elsewhere, this goal has been discredited on the grounds of the impossibility of replacing an organic development of nationhood with an externally imposed wish list. But for Washington to arrive at this truth that has been staring the US and its western allies invested in Afghanistan in the face for years, much blood and lucre had to be wasted before wisdom dawned. To those who argue the US had no other choice after 9/11 and the refusal of the Taliban government to cooperate in bringing Osama bin Laden to justice, one can only say this was, with hindsight, perhaps the least wise course, fuelled by a desire for revenge more than strategic insight. Unfortunately, the price to be paid does not end there. It is obvious to all but the purblind or those with a vested interest in turning a blind eye to the likely future of Afghanistan that the Taliban are biding their time till the US forces leave before they roll over the Afghan government that has proved incapable of standing on its own against the Taliban. The ‘peace’ process therefore is little more than a face saving effort to pull Washington’s chestnuts out of the Afghan fire, allow a tissue-thin veil for the ignominious defeat and retreat of the US, and leave the long suffering Afghan people to their uncertain fate. Pakistan too would have to be cautious against the Pakistani Taliban finding succour and support from a future exclusively Taliban government in Kabul.

Business Recorder Editorial April 2, 2020

Yemen’s unending agony

Tit-for-tat strikes, in that order, by Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led Arab coalition reproduce the pattern that defines the protracted war in Yemen. This time, Saudi Arabia’s Air Defence Forces intercepted and destroyed one ballistic missile over Riyadh, another over Jizan, which borders Yemen. In retaliation, the Saudis carried out air strikes on the rebel-held capital Sana’a on March 30, 2020 that hit the presidential palace compound, a military school and an air base close to the airport. Reports of human casualties are not available, but Houthi sources said 70 horses were killed and 30 wounded. Further air strikes were reported in the northwestern Amran province. These strikes were described by the Saudi-led coalition as an operation to destroy legitimate military targets. These exchanges represent a fresh escalation of the war, particularly strikes on Sanaa, which had been rare since Saudi Arabia launched indirect talks with the Houthis in September 2019. The warring sides welcomed a UN call for an immediate truce to help fight the coronavirus outbreak. But given the fact that the talks do not seem to be going anywhere and the resumption of fierce battles in Al Jawf and Marib provinces since February 2020, Yemen’s unabated agony shows no signs of ending. The recent escalation has added another 40,000 displaced people to the already uprooted 3.6 million. Hunger, starvation and disease are rampant. While the UN can be expected to play a role to bring hostilities to an end, it is hamstrung by the indifference of the major world powers and now the limitations and restrictions imposed in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

The Yemen conflict has its roots in the failure of a political transition following the Arab Spring uprising in the country in 2011 that forced its longtime authoritarian president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to hand over power to his deputy, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. Hadi was unable to control the situation, exacerbated by jihadist attacks, a separatist movement in the south, security personnel’s continuing loyalty to Saleh, corruption, unemployment and food insecurity. The Houthi movement that champions Yemen’s Zaidi Shia minority and had staged a series of rebellions against Saleh, took advantage of the unsettled situation to take control of their northern heartland of Saada province and neighbouring areas. Many ordinary disillusioned Yemenis, including Sunnis, supported the Houthis who gradually took over the capital Sana’a in 2014-15. An attempt by the Houthis to take over the whole country forced Hadi to flee abroad in March 2015. That is when Saudi Arabia arraigned a coalition including eight other mostly Sunni Arab countries aimed at defeating the Houthis, seen by Riyadh as Iranian proxies. Initial Saudi confidence that its exclusive control of the air and strike capability would end the war and restore Hadi in a few weeks has foundered since on the rock of the Houthi resistance. The latter have by now acquired ballistic missiles and drones that they regularly launch against Saudi Arabia.

Yemen, already tragically poor, is considered the world’s worst humanitarian crisis because of the civil war complicated by foreign intervention. Big world powers have learnt to their cost the limits of being able to structure the politics of a country by invasion and occupation, e.g. in Afghanistan and Iraq. Regional power Saudi Arabia is now learning a similar bitter lesson vis-à-vis its military intervention in the Yemen civil war. As the world is diverted and focused on combating the coronavirus pandemic, it must nevertheless turn its attention to an unmitigated disaster in the making at the cost of the long suffering Yemeni people. While the protagonists must exercise (or be made to exercise) restraint, talks and a political solution seem the only way forward in a fractured and destroyed Yemen.