Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Business Recorder Column January 14, 2025

Six canals kerfuffle

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal has been roundly taken to task for his dismissive attitude to Sindh’s objections to the proposed construction of six new canals on the Indus to water the Cholistan desert. Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Sindh president Nisar Khuhro and former chairman Senate Raza Rabbani have criticised Ahsan Iqbal for rubbishing Sindh’s objections to the project as a ‘baseless debate’. To prove the worthy Federal Minister for Planning wrong, Khuhro and Rabbani have in no uncertain terms laid out Sindh’s case on the issue.

First and foremost, Nisar Khuhro questioned where the water to fill the Cholistan canals’ 4,152 cusecs capacity would come from. As it is, Khuhro argued, the 1991 Water Accord has never been implemented in its true spirit. It is a fact that the Water Accord agreed under the Nawaz Sharif government after its desired Kalabagh Dam project was shot down set a provisional figure of 10 MAF flow downstream Kotri, pending further studies. This 10 MAF provisional flow was intended to meet southern Sindh’s agricultural and drinking water needs, as well as safeguard the Indus Delta from sea intrusion. In a totally dishonest manner, this provisional 10 MAF is released during the summer flood and monsoon season in one go, leaving the Indus dry downstream Kotri for most of the year. This legerdemain has destroyed agriculture in the southern districts of Thatta, Badin, Sujawal, Tando Mohammad Khan, etc, and affected the Indus Delta, its mangrove forests and ecology because of sea intrusion. Surely that was not the intention of the Water Accord. One may ask in all innocence where are the ‘further studies’ the Accord laid down to agree a more permanent flow figure south of Kotri? Not a single one has been carried out.

Nisar Khuhro let his ‘imagination’ flow to answer the rhetorical question where the additional water for the Cholistan canals would come from. He feared that after remodelling of the Qadirabad, Sulemanki and Rasool Barrages, water from the Jehlum River would be released into the Cholistan canals, thereby rendering perennial the ‘flood’ Chashma-Jehlum Link and Taunsa-Panjnad Canals. As it is, the Chashma-Jehlum Link Canal was ‘sold’ to Sindh as a ‘flood’ canal, only to be allowed perennial flow since 1974 with then Punjab Governor Ghulam Mustafa Khar’s help and support. Nisar Khuhro also brushed aside Ahsan Iqbal’s contention that no province would get more than its settled share of water by pointing out that already, pumping machines had been installed from Taunsa to Guddu Barrage to steal Sindh’s water share. To substantiate his claim, Nisar Khuhro asked why the recommendations of the report on this water theft by MNA Khalid Magsi were not implemented. Khuhro raised the issue of why the long awaited telemetry system had yet to be installed and the Council of Common Interests (CCI) long delayed, constitutionally binding meeting was not being called to discuss these water issues.

Raza Rabbani on the other hand, in his response to Ahsan Iqbal’s insensitive statement added concerns regarding respect for provincial autonomy, the Water Accord, the rights of Sindh as the lower riparian and the sentiments of the people of the province. He pointed out that the decision to construct new canals to divert water from the Indus for farming in Punjab’s Cholistan region could not be taken by the federal government. He too pointed in the direction of the failure to call a meeting of the CCI, with no indication of whether or when the somnolent federal government may choose to overcome its violation of the Constitution in this regard. Raza Rabbani went on to say that the agriculture sector is the linchpin of Sindh’s economy (hence the sensitivity regarding the water issue, based on past upper riparian unfair practices). The province contributes 23 percent of the federation’s national value-added, 41 percent of the national output of rice, 31 percent of sugarcane and 21 percent of wheat.

Public opinion in Sindh has been stirred by the proposed new canals ‘adventure’. Apart from the statements quoted above, the opposition in Sindh has formed a broad-based Save Indus River Movement (SIRM) that is on the march from Hyderabad (yesterday it had reached Umerkot). The SIRM has accused the PPP of hypocrisy on the Cholistan canals issue, claiming President Asif Zardari had given his assent to the so-called Green Pakistan Initiative (under which the new canals have apparently been mooted) while chairing a meeting at the President’s House on July 8, 2024, while the PPP in Sindh was railing against the proposal. Not to be left behind (or miss a chance to do down the present dispensation), incarcerated Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) vice-chairman Shah Mahmood Qureshi has let loose a broadside in the shape of a handwritten letter from jail, which argues the PPP should withdraw its support to the incumbent dispensation if its objections to the Cholistan canals are not heard. To add spice to the matter, there is the unsubstantiated allegation from Musharraf’s time that his insistence on building the Kalabagh Dam and taking out a canal or canals to water Cholistan was motivated by the fact that certain retired Generals had acquired (or been allotted) lands in Cholistan. When Musharraf finally backed off the Kalabagh Dam idea under pressure from Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) (not to mention Balochistan), it is believed there were a few sad faces amongst these Generals. But all this is hearsay.

The fact is that the lower riparian’s litany of past complaints regarding water sharing has now had more added to it. A federation that insists on overriding privileges for the dominant province across the board, is a federation teetering on the brink of a major disaster.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com 

Monday, January 13, 2025

Filmbar screening of Aleem Bukhari's "Anaari Science" at RPC on Friday, January 17, 2025 at 5:00 pm sharp

Filmbar screening of Aleem Bukhari's "Anaari Science" at the Research and Publication Centre (RPC) on Friday, January 17, 2025 at 5:00 pm sharp.

The film is about two people with very different lives. It connects the stories of two characters in a world that subtly blurs the line between the magical and the real, creating an atmosphere of strangeness and mundanity at the same time. 

Aleem Bukhari is an experimental filmmaker from Hyderabad, Sindh.

All friends are welcome. Tea will be served to mitigate the effects of the cold weather.

Address: Research and Publication Centre (RPC), 2nd Floor, 65 Main Boulevard Gulberg, Lahore (next to Standard Chartered Bank, above Indesign showroom).

Rashed Rahman
Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)
Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)
 

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Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Business Recorder Column January 7, 2025

What ails Kurram?

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Kurram Agency has once again been in the news for all the wrong reasons. A series of land dispute/sectarian clashes have once again been in evidence off and on since 2023 in the latest (and continuing sporadically) conflict that has its roots in history. These clashes have once again caused deaths and injuries on both sides, and severe shortages of food, medicine and other necessary supplies in the middle of the coldest part of winter. In the latest reported incident on January 4, 2025, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) government’s halting, belated efforts to bring about peace through traditional jirga mediation and open the blocked roads, particularly the Thal-Parachinar road, were set back by an attack on Javedullah Mehsud, Deputy Commissioner, in which he and six others of his team inspecting security arrangements for a supply convoy to Parachinar were injured. The Parachinar access road has been the scene of violent attacks in the recent past, the bloodiest being the attack on a convoy in which 40 people were killed.

The pattern of off and on tribal-sectarian clashes in Kurram requires explanation. First, some summarised history. Kurram Agency as it is now demarcated was part of Afghanistan before the British wrested it during the Anglo-Afghan wars of the 19th century. Before that, the roots of the present sectarian divide are to be found in the entry of the Turi tribe, Shias, into the area in the 18th century. Naturally, this brought them into conflict with the previous tribes inhabiting the region, who were Sunni. Since then, conflicts over land often take on a sectarian hue since the tribes are divided along Shia-Sunni lines. During the war against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, Sunni Mujahideen, incensed by the resistance by the Shia tribes to using Kurram (colourfully described then as the ‘Parrot’s Beak’ because it juts into Afghanistan) as a launch pad by the Sunni Mujahideen and their more extreme allies such as al Qaeda and the Haqqani Network, often clashed with the Turi and other (relatively smaller) Shia tribes. Therefore the historically received land-sectarian divide received now an ideological slant, further dividing the perceived (in some cases actual) Saudi-backed Sunni religious extremist groups and the Iran-backed Shia ones. History aside, the Afghan wars have bequeathed one more ‘gift’ in terms of deepening and exacerbating the sectarian divide in Kurram.

The approach to the recurring land and sectarian conflict in Kurram by the provincial and federal authorities is wanting in many respects. First and foremost is inconsistency and failure to see things through to implementation of peace accords arrived at after every bloody encounter through the traditional jirgamechanism. As a result, even such open-ended accords stand breached sooner or later, let alone those with a limited timeframe. The Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government in KP, which has been in power continuously for a decade, has been extremely lax in its efforts to sort out this recurring conflict/s. Not that the federal governments have done much better, occasional shows of military force being punctuated by long periods of silent neglect (a logical outcome of the federal-provincial divide in this case).

Given the increasing profile of Tehreek-i-Taliban (TTP) attacks in KP since they received a fillip through the Afghan Taliban’s return to power in 2021, it is critical that the federal government and security establishment on the one hand, and the KP PTI government on the other, lay aside their other differences and focus on diluting if not eliminating the threatening spread of sectarian conflict rooted in land issues in Kurram lest this provide another opening to the TTP and other Sunni extremist groups to fan the flames of a sectarian civil war in Kurram. The former tribal agency boasts a population of 700,000, with 42 percent of these being Shia. This should awaken the powers that be to the potentially explosive nature of the continuation and accentuation of sectarian conflict in Kurram.

History, tribal land disputes, sectarian differences notwithstanding, it is the state’s responsibility to prevent a potentially bloody sectarian civil war that looms over Kurram, with its obvious danger signals for sectarian peace throughout the country.

 

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Monday, January 6, 2025

Filmbar screening of Larisa Shepitko's "The Ascent" (1977) at RPC on Friday, January 10, 2025 at 5:00 pm sharp

Filmbar screening of Larisa Shepitko's "The Ascent" (1977) at the Research and Publication Centre (RPC) on Friday, January 10, 2025, at 5:00 pm sharp.

The narrative follows two Soviet partisans on a mission to gather food to contend with the winter cold, the occupying Germans, and their own psyches.

The screening will be followed by an informal discussion.
All friends are welcome. Tea will be served.

Address: Research and Publication Centre (RPC), 2nd Floor, 65 Main Boulevard Gulberg, Lahore (next to Standard Chartered Bank, above Indesign showroom).

Rashed Rahman
Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)
Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)
Email: rashed.rahman1@gmail.com
Cells: 0302 8482737 & 0333 4216335

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Thursday, January 2, 2025

The January 2025 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out

The January 2025 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out. Link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com

Contents:

1. Chris Harman: The return of the National Question.
2. Vijay Prashad: How to understand the change of government in Syria.
3. Pankaj Mishra: The Last Days of Mankind.
4. Eric Rahim: A memoir of the 1950s (Pakistan).
5. W B Bland: The Pakistani Revolution – VI: Land Reform and Basic Democracy.
6. Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur: The Rise of Baloch Nationalism and Resistance – XVII: Are we Fascists?
7. From the PMR Archives: June 2019: Dr Qaisar Abbas: Cultural Identity and State Oppression: Internal Colonialism in Pakistan.

Rashed Rahman

Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)

Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)

Email: rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

Cells: 0302 8482737 & 0333 4216335.

Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Business Recorder column December 31, 2024

Happy New Year?

 

Rashed Rahman

 

This, they say traditionally, is the turn-of-the-year season to be jolly. But even a cursory glance at the afflictions that ail Pakistan will lead inevitably and logically to the conclusion that there is precious little to be happy about. While the never-ending saga of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) versus the government swamps the media, there are perhaps deeper issues that are even more troubling. Let us survey some of these briefly.

Terrorism has us in its grip once again, particularly in the western border provinces. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is exhibiting a resurgence perhaps beyond even what it could manage in the past. Not only are attacks being carried out on an enhanced scale (mostly on the security forces this time round), they are deadlier in their effect. Now even cross-border infiltration and attacks are the order of the day, with reportedly Afghan Taliban help. This latter is the new factor that has upset the applecart. After the Afghan Taliban came to power in 2021 in the wake of the ignominious US retreat, not only are the TTP’s safe havens on Afghan soil even more secure, the new Afghan rulers appear to have opened for the TTP the doors to their warehouses stocking tons of abandoned US weapons. Hence the increased deadliness of the TTP attacks. Pakistan is now paying for the ill-conceived support for the fanatical Afghan Taliban in the illusory hope that theirs would be a friendly regime when in power. The Afghan Taliban on the other hand, have cocked a snook at their erstwhile ‘friend’ Pakistan and plumped instead for support to their ideological brothers, the TTP. Imran Khan was in power in 2021, and invited the TTP back. Faiz Hameed is supposed to have managed the whole gambit. Now that this generosity towards the fanatics has turned sour, the PTI is desperately trying to shift the blame onto General Bajwa. It is doubtful if many will swallow this ‘u-turn’ without demur. Clearly, the dye is now cast in favour of a determined campaign of eliminating the TTP once and for all.

While the military establishment appears to have succeeded in browbeating the mainstream media into eliminating the distinction between the religious fundamentalist terrorist extremism of the TTP and the nationalist insurgency in Balochistan, both having by now been lumped indiscriminately into the ‘terrorist’ basket, the blurring of the difference has not helped. The Balochistan nationalist insurgency is not terrorism, it is a political guerrilla war. Unfortunately, our national security state refused to countenance political negotiations with the Baloch insurgents innumerable times, resulting in the insurgency tipping over into the demand for independence. This is not a good portent for Pakistan. Sympathies or otherwise with the Baloch cause and its long standing grievances notwithstanding, the national security state has managed a self-fulfilling prophecy by relying on force alone (including disappearing thousands of people belonging to the troubled province). The Baloch insurgents may not be in a position to win against the powerful Pakistan armed forces in the foreseeable future, but the canker that is Balochistan will continue to suppurate and may even burst at some unexpected and unforeseeable turn of events.

Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman and his fellow madrassa boards maulvis seem to have got their way through a compromise on the registration issue that has been in the news for some time. The five older seminary boards and the new (10?) ones have now been allowed to choose who to be registered with, the Directorate General of Religious Education (DGRE) or the relevant deputy commissioner’s office. Everybody is therefore happy. But the niggling question remains: is the state and its institutions now in a position to ensure religious extremism does not form part of any madrassa’s curriculum? That is the central concern. Only time will tell if we have gone past this particular post.

Kurram Agency’s land and sectarian disputes continue, often violently, with road blockages that have starved the people of the Agency of badly needed food, medicine and warmth in the middle of a crackingly cold winter. Sympathetic sit-ins in support of the people of Kurram, particularly Parachinar, are being held all over the country. In Karachi, they have disrupted the traffic of the metropolis to the point where the Sindh Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) government and citizens are now crying themselves hoarse that the protests should, in all fairness, be held in KP, not Sindh. There are signs of a breakthrough in the jirgas confabulations for a solution to this complicated conflict, but better not to hold your breath on this one.

The ruling coalition too is showing signs of strain, if the PPP’s plethora of complaints of not being taken on board and involved in the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s (PML-N’s) decision making are to be believed. The proposal of taking out six new canals from the already depleted waters of the Indus has roused the ire of all shades of opinion in Sindh, which sees this as a life-and death issue. South of Kotri, the Indus bed is a dry, sandy stretch used by children for playing cricket at least 10 months of the year. Any new canals threaten to turn Sindh into a desert unable to sustain its agriculture and other economic activities. The federation is once more under strain as a result.

Last but not least, the cheery news is that having arm-twisted the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) into either accepting a termination of contract or a radical reduction in tariffs (and profits) on a take and pay basis, the military establishment intends to extend its economic muscle into corporate agriculture (in Sindh and Punjab) and any other field in which Military Inc. is not already heavily invested. Of course all this is bound to boost the confidence of local and foreign investors. Only, again, don’t hold your breath (even if the AQI demands it).

Happy New Year?

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Monday, December 30, 2024

Filmbar's screening of Costa Gavraz's "Z" (1969) at RPC on Friday, January 3, 2025 at 5:00 pm sharp

Filmbar's screening of Costa-Gavras' "Z" (1969) at the Research and Publication Centre (RPC) on Friday, January 3, 2025, at 5:00 pm sharp.

In Greece, the public murder of a prominent politician and doctor amid a violent demonstration is covered up by military and government officials. A tenacious magistrate is determined not to let them get away with it.

The screening will be followed by an informal discussion.

All friends are welcome. Tea will be served.

Address: Research and Publication Centre (RPC), 2nd Floor, 65 Main Boulevard Gulberg, Lahore (next to Standard Chartered Bank, above Indesign showroom).

Rashed Rahman
Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)
Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)

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