Taliban regime recognition
Rashed Rahman
History is subject to strange twists and turns. One such is the decision by Russia to recognise the Afghan Taliban regime, the first and only country so far to do so. One hardly needs reminding of Russian sensitivity on the issue, given that the Afghan Taliban emerged from the womb of the Mujahideen who fought the Soviet occupation with the help of Pakistan and the US-led west for a decade, following which Russia (then the Soviet Union) finally decided to call it a day and withdrew in 1989 after Gorbachev assumed the leadership in Moscow. Arguably, that defeat, or rather being fought to a stalemate, fed into the troubled waters afflicting the Soviet Union and its ultimate collapse. The intriguing question is, why has Russia, given this painful past, ‘jumped the gun’ in this regard before China, India or even Pakistan?
For one, Russia is seeking to expand its diplomatic footprint globally, including south west Asia, in order to reverse the isolation into which the US-led west has been trying to push it since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. Its decision to formally exchange ambassadors therefore smacks of realpolitik, strategic opportunism, and positioning itself to engage in economic cooperation with the region in the fields of energy, transport and infrastructure. For Pakistan, troubled as it is by the conscious or tacit hosting of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other hostile groups on Afghan soil, Russian lack of leverage over the Afghan Taliban in this regard offers little hope of the betterment of the fraught situation on the Afghan-Pakistan border. Although recent diplomatic moves aided by China, including a visit to Kabul by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, show signs of improving diplomatic relations between the two neighbouring countries, this is still some way from Kabul halting completely the attacks on Pakistan by the TTP, Hafiz Gul Bahadar Group and other fundamentalist groups based on Afghan soil.
Russia’s diplomatic initiative may well persuade other countries to follow suit. Moscow has recognised the Taliban regime as an acceptance of its de facto control of the country, with little or no resistance left to its stranglehold. Of the countries interested in recognition, China stands out most. Beijing’s interest in rare earth and other minerals in Afghanistan is by now a matter of record. China also seeks to blunt the presence and activities of religious extremist and fundamentalist groups such as Islamic State and al Qaeda based in Afghanistan lest this affliction spills over to its restless Xinjiang region, where an Islamic resistance movement has been controlled after much effort stretching over many years.
If the Afghan Taliban were to accept good advice, or be willing to learn from the past, they need look no further than Pakistan’s experience of supporting proxies in the long war for control of Afghanistan. Not only did Islamabad’s Afghan proxies nurture and give birth to the Pakistani Taliban, by now even the so-called ‘good’ Taliban (TTP, etc) have long since turned against it. If Kabul hopes to use the TTP and similar groups to change Pakistan into a mirror of what it has implemented in its own territory, it should heed the well-meaning warning about proxies being double edged swords, as Pakistan can ruefully testify from its own experience. Pakistan has clearly stated after the Russian recognition announcement that it is in no hurry to extend recognition, pending the hoped for improvement in the behaviour of the Afghan Taliban regime in scotching the cross-border attacks of the TTP etc. If that is the case, that recognition by Islamabad may be some way down the road because Kabul’s ostensible moves to prevent cross-border attacks by the TTP and others seem more window dressing than consistent, serious policy.
As to the Afghan people themselves, precious little except hope for economic and other betterment in a country afflicted with want and hunger, in the wake of Moscow’s decision can be heard from those interviewed in Afghanistan in this regard. On the other hand, not surprisingly, Afghan women hold little hope of any betterment under the patriarchal, male chauvinist order the Taliban have once again imposed. In short, those hopeful of better days and those gloomy at the prospects for the future amongst the Afghan people in the aftermath of Russian recognition can only be pitied and prayed for. Afghanistan not only shows no signs of ending the dark night it has been enveloped in after the (second) Taliban takeover, Kabul is being rewarded with recognition (actual and potential) by countries whose own interests (as usual, no great surprise there) override any other principle.
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