Business Recorder Column February 25, 2025

Russia-Ukraine War: Origins and Endgame

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Three years after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the advent of Donald Trump into power in the US has upset the applecart for Volodymyr Zelensky and hints at a changed geopolitical scenario in Europe and the wider world. Trump had exhibited a soft spot for Russian President Vladimir Putin even in his first term, and after leaving office, consistently opposed the war while expressing a tilt towards Russia. During his election campaign and on the eve of a return to the White House, Trump made no bones about wanting to, and being capable of, ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict “within 24 hours”. The timeline may have been the usual Trump hyperbole, but it did indicate the US President’s mindset vis-a-vis the war.

What is the Russia-Ukraine conflict? What are its origins and, in the light of the remarks above, its likely endgame? The problem with seeking an objective account of this conundrum is that the whole affair is shrouded in propaganda and partisan spin from both sides (not an unusual phenomenon in wars). First, some historical background.

Ukraine’s Donbas region, around which the current war has been waged, is considered in Russian historiography as the original home of the Russian people and culture after they migrated there from Scandinavia around the 8^th-11^thcenturies. Add to this nostalgia the fact that the Donbas, largely Russian to date, complained of discrimination and worse from Ukraine, particularly after the Maidan uprising in 2014. In the aftermath of that political cataclysm of regime change (one of the ‘colour’ revolutions in Eastern Europe orchestrated as it is widely believed they were, by the CIA), both the Russian denizens of Donbas and their Russian Orthodox Church (revived after the Soviet collapse in 1991) came under alleged attack by neo-Nazi elements in Ukraine. These neo-Nazis are considered the heirs of the WWII Ukrainian collaborators with the occupying Nazi war machine of Hitler.

Russian sensitivity regarding its diaspora scattered throughout the former Soviet Republics has informed Moscow’s actions in Abkhazia, Georgia (where a separatist Russian movement was indirectly supported by Russia) and Ukraine, the two most extreme examples of such intervention. Moscow has also kept an eye on the interests of Russians in the Central Asian Republics that broke away and became independent in 1991. Putin in particular appears to have made it his life’s mission to ensure his Russian compatriots in the former Soviet Republics are not maltreated.

On the other side of the divide is the perfidious role of the West which, not content with its ‘victory’ over the Soviet Union, has been needling post-Soviet Russia with NATO-creep (the inclusion of Eastern European countries in the military alliance, a development the West initially assured Moscow would not happen) and the doing down of Russia’s military might (which includes nuclear weapons). All this is intended to weaken Russia and ensure the US-led West’s unchallenged global hegemony. Sceptics are invited to cast a glance at how China, after being embraced when it opened its doors to capitalism under Deng Xiaoping, is today being considered an economic, political and military threat by the US-led West precisely because of the progress it has made. Thucydides is therefore alive and kicking.

Had the West remained content with the humbling of Russia post-Soviet collapse, things may not have reached this pretty pass. However, Trump is making one thing clear: the days of Zelensky are now numbered, along with those in Ukraine who still dream of recovering all the territory they have lost to Russia in this war. Trump seems uninterested in Ukraine’s refrain along these lines. His avid interest currently is in asking Zelensky for $ 500 billion in rare minerals to be found in Ukraine as payback for all the aid Washington has bestowed on the (by now lost) Ukrainian cause.

Another major loser in the second Trumpian era is Europe, which has been excluded from the table as US-Russia meetings roll out. The European Union’s angst about Ukrainian, and therefore European, security has been trashed by the new/old incumbent in the White House. Trump had in the past railed against the continuation of the US stationing troops in and bearing the cost of Europe’s security (a hangover of the post-WWII world) and repeatedly asked for Europe to increase its contribution to European defence. This had not been taken too seriously in practice by the EU, lip service notwithstanding. Now it seems the free lunch is over and the chickens have come home to roost.

Welcome to the Trumpian universe.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com 

Red Book Day screening of Mara Ahmed's film "Return to Sender..." at RPC, Thursday, February 27, 2025 at 6:00 pm

The Naked Punch Review, Filmbar, Progressive Students Federation, Surkh Sawera, Kitab Ghar, Roshni Publications invite you to a screening of Mara Ahmed's film "Return to Sender: Women of Colour in Colonial Postcards & the Politics of Representation" at the Research and Publication Centre (RPC) on Thursday, February 27, 2025 at 6:00 pm.

The documentary explores how photography, art and culture were used to shape colonial narratives of gender, race and ethnicity in the Subcontinent. These constructs are still prominent in our society's structural vernacular, yet so are the quiet, subversive ways that were born to resist and create newer visions and possibilities.

This event is part of the Red Book Day festivities taking place throughout Pakistan, organised by many progressive publishing houses, artist collectives and student organisations. Red Book Day celebrates the publication of the Communist Manifesto, providing us with opportunities to revisit, reimagine and push forward Marx's ideas within a broader context.

Mara Ahmed is a multidisciplinary artist who works across various media including film, sound and visual art to challenge existing structures of post-colonial modernity and political borders. She will deliver a talk to accompany the film, followed by a Q & A session.

All friends are welcome. Tea will be served.

Address: Research and Publication Centre (RPC), 2nd Floor, 65 Main Boulevard Gulberg, Lahore (next to Standard Chartered Bank, above Indesign showroom).

Rashed Rahman

Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)

Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)

Cells: 0302 8482737 & 0333 4216335

Business Recorder Column February 11, 2025

Mad Hatter strikes again…and again

 

Rashed Rahman

 

US President Donald Trump, in his inimitable style and thrust, continues to rock the boat globally. Not only has he unleashed (without, it seems, any consultation, and almost as a parting shot in his joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) his ridiculous ‘cleanse Gaza, develop a riviera front there’ absurdity, he has threatened higher, punitive tariffs on friends, allies and ‘adversaries’ alike, triggering fears of a global trade war. The former has, as expected, evoked condemnation across the board and the world. The latter has transpired, at least in the case of Canada and Mexico, as bargaining chips intended to ‘persuade’ both neighbours to negotiate solutions to illegal immigration and trade issues. And let’s not even tarry on Trump’s threats to retake the Panama Canal and rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America. Trump thinks he can strike deals to reverse the decline of the US as a major industrial and trading power, the former having been depleted by globalisation and its concomitant shift of industries abroad, particularly to the lower cost, lower wages developing world, the latter highlighting the trade deficits of the US with most major trading partners, which have become a permanent fact for long.

Is Trump stark, raving mad, as some writers have suggested? I do not flatter myself that my characterisation of him as the Mad Hatter has prompted this description. In my view, Trump is a sane, albeit extreme and not always well informed, defender of what he calls nostalgically “America Great Again”. The facts, however, which Trump may or may not be aware of, point to the gaps and fallacies of his flurry of pronouncements since assuming office. Take illegal immigration for example. The southern states of the US, including Texas and California, have for years relied on illegal immigrant Mexican labour to bring in fruit and other agricultural harvests. The total clampdown on illegal immigration that Trump has initiated, without considering legitimising seasonal visiting labour during harvest seasons, is likely to cause major economic disruptions in these southern states because American labour, particularly white, is reluctant to take such jobs. The higher tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, now halted till negotiations on trade and illegal immigration issues are being conducted, cannot match the disruptive effects of a trade war between China and the US. A tentative start of this war has been signalled by China raising tariffs on some US imports as a warning shot across the bows against proceeding further down this path. Europe too is girding up its loins for a possible retaliatory raft of tariff increases if Trump carries out his threat to ‘reverse’ the US’s trade deficits, whether with friend or foe. Whether he succeeds in this enterprise or not, his attempt to do so is likely to cause severe repercussions and ripples through the global economic order touted as ‘rules based’. The fallout will not leave any part of the globe untouched. The declining hegemonic power (the US) is desperately trying to reverse the relentless march of history towards a multi-polar world, in which China threatens to overtake the US economically (perhaps not yet militarily).

On Palestine, almost on cue, Netanyahu has added fuel to the fire sparked by Trump’s insensitive, ill thought through, seemingly impromptu remarks on Gaza by suggesting the Palestinians should be ‘liberated’ from the world’s biggest open air prison (Gaza). This ‘thoughtful’ follow through to Trump’s silliness has added new feathers to this ‘comic’ duo’s circus act. Netanyahu generously absolves the US from the onerous task of sending American troops to ethnically cleanse Gaza, offering Israeli troops for the task. Further, he proclaims loftily: only those Gazans will be allowed back who forego terrorism. If this were not adding salt to Palestinian wounds inflicted by Netanyahu and his fascist settler colonialist, expansionist state, one might be tempted to laugh. Clearly Netanyahu has not drawn the correct conclusions from the incredibly courageous Palestinian resistance to Israeli genocide in Gaza. The Palestinians in reply to Netanyahu’s nonsense have reiterated their love of their land and their right to live on it. They have rejected any repetition of the 1948 Naqba (displacement). Despairing of the ruins their homes have been reduced to by the Israeli terror inflicted by its military machine, oiled and fed by the US-led west, the Gaza Palestinians have reiterated their patriotic love of their land. And lest we forget, despite the ceasefire a month ago, Israel has continued its killing spree in Gaza. The casualty count in this period alone is 110 Palestinians killed, 900 wounded. Add to this the raids by the Israeli military in the West Bank, and you get an inkling of what Israel’s real plan is: evict the Palestinians by hook or by crook from Gaza and the West Bank and annex both. Intone therefore the funeral dirge for the much touted, seemingly more and more impossible, ‘two-state’ solution.

Now there is only one solution. The Palestinians must continue their resistance struggle against Israel despite the odds and the many more sacrifices required of them in order to overthrow, liquidate the Zionist state and liberate Palestine, no matter how long it takes. Jewish citizens of Israel innocent of crimes against the Palestinian people can then be offered the choice of remaining as equal citizens of a liberated Palestine, or emigration to a country of their choice. Those Israelis found guilty of atrocities and crimes against the Palestinian people must face charges and be punished justly for their abhorrent past. The Palestinians unfortunately cannot, and, given the track record, should not rest too many hopes in the Arab or Muslim world. These are toothless entities, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

The February 2025 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out

The February 2025 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out. Link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com

Contents:

1. Lara Deeb, Maya Mikdashi, Tsolin Nalbantian, Nadya Sbaiti: A Primer on Lebanon: History, Palestine and Resistance to Israeli Violence.
2. Chris Harman: The return of the National question – II: Classical Marxism and the National Question.
3. W B Bland: The Pakistani Revolution – VII: The Role of the National Awami Party, the 1965 General Elections, War with India.
4. Hamza Alavi: Imperialism Old and New.
5. Dr Abbas Zaidi: Punjabis – Living down a vulgar language.
6. Maqsud Nuri: Socrates’ views regarding the business world.

Rashed Rahman

Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)

Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook) 

Business Recorder Column February 4, 2025

Autocracy on the march

 

Rashed Rahman

 

The portents point to an overwhelming march towards autocracy. A country in the throes of unremitting crises in the political, economic and social fields will inevitably give rise to opposition and dissent. This is what the present dispensation has set out to control, if not quash. First it was the mainstream media. Newspapers are today a pale reflection of a once vibrant print media, even under the worst military dictatorships in our history, when journalists learnt to ‘creatively’ write between the lines, relying on the intelligence of the reader to discern the invisible fine print. Television, with its already deserved accolade of the ‘idiot box’, today is several lengths beyond even idiocy. Dictated content and choice of appearances, all subsumed within the looming weapon of the ‘cut-off’ switch, renders our plethora of ‘news’ channels unwatchable, except by the suffering few who are compelled to be tortured thus because of professional reasons. Now that the mainstream media has been ‘tamed’ it appears to be the turn of the social media.

When the internet, and subsequently social media, burst upon the stage, everyone welcomed this blossoming of freedom of expression and speech. With time, the flaws in giving everyone with a cellphone the ability to post just about anything, did betray the depth of foolishness that surprisingly resides hidden hitherto amongst humanity as a whole. Hopeful minds comforted themselves with the thought that this was terra incognita, and would soon settle down to more acceptable norms. That optimism has been refuted over time. The foolishness on social media has grown, if anything. Foolishness was perhaps the least worrying of the new phenomena that began to assert themselves on social media before long. These included criminal, exploitative, even abusive usage. Despite their holy vows to prevent such phenomena being allowed to exist, let alone grow, social media platforms and providers have failed to scotch this unacceptable face of the new means of global communication, not the least because of their non-transparent, befogged ‘principles’, vows of political correctness that soon were exposed as hollow and hypocritical.

But social media did have a positive side too. Dissenting views, that could not find an outlet in the mainstream media, proliferated in the ‘liberated’ universe of its new born brother. It is this dissenting opinion and its airing on social media that the Pakistani government is now intending to quash through the draconian amendments to the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA). The new provisions are frightening, even to hardened souls who have lived and struggled through the darkest periods of our history. The alarm is at the unbelievably broad, virtually undefined provisions that virtually permit the authorities to pummel with threats of imprisonment and fines anyone daring to voice an opinion that does not meet with the approval of the present dispensation or its military establishment backers (the real power behind the throne). If the powers-that-be delude themselves that such draconian steps will not meet resistance, clearly they have forgotten our history and in the process failed to learn any lessons from it. The entire journalist community has come out against this autocratic, suppressive construct. A decisive struggle for freedom of speech and expression is on the cards.

As if this were not enough, the manipulation of the superior judiciary to extinguish its independence marches on unabated. The superior judiciary has been targeted since some judges of the Islamabad High Court (IHC) revealed publicly that they had suffered attempts at intimidation to deliver verdicts according to our ubiquitous intelligence services’ wishes. Since that sensational exposure, the entire superior judiciary, but especially the Supreme Court (SC) and the IHC have been targeted in order to ensure no adverse judgements would be forthcoming, allergic as the security state is to being thus challenged by a pillar of the state that willy-nilly we all pay lip service to the independence of.

First and foremost, through the 26^th Amendment, rushed through parliament without so much as a nod towards parliamentary consultation, let alone debate, the carving out of the Constitutional Bench (CB) from the ranks of the SC judges has rendered the rest of the SC virtually toothless. With due regard and respect for the honourable Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) and his brother judges, this humiliation is beyond the pale of acceptance. Legal challenges to the 26^thAmendment are perforce being heard by the CB, a creature that owes its birth to the same Amendment. Does this not represent an instance of being judge and jury in one’s own case? Perish the thought, because when this anomaly was pointed out by the counsel for former CJP Jawwad Khwaja, the CB rudely admonished him and even threatened to throw him out of court. I may be wrong, but this episode smacks of a guilty conscience. In the past, no matter how provocative the arguments of a counsel, the superior judiciary either responded with silence or pertinent arguments, never with rudeness beyond the ambit of behaviour expected from His Lordships.

This is not all. The IHC has received three judges from other High Courts, one of whom has been touted as the new Chief Justice of the IHC once the present incumbent is elevated to the SC. Five IHC judges in a letter to the CJP and the Chief Justices of the High Courts from whence the new transferred judges have been inducted into the IHC have raised objections to this ‘gerrymandering’ superior judiciary appointments. Lawyers’ bodies too are up in arms against such unprecedented manipulation. A ‘stacked’ SC, CB and IHC can only demean and destroy the respect owed to His Lordships, thereby destroying whatever little is still left of the public’s confidence in our superior judiciary.

Keep an eye on the burgeoning opposition to the two topics dealt with above. Journalists, lawyers, civil society and even political parties out of favour or still possessing a conscience, this is the joint front priming itself to come out against the blatant march of autocracy in our country.

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Filmbar screening of Wim Wenders' "Paris, Texas" (1984) at RPC, Friday, February 7, 2025 at 5:00 pm sharp

Filmbar screening of Wim Wenders' "Paris, Texas" (1984) at the Research and Publication Centre (RPC), on Friday, February 7, 2025 at 5:00 pm sharp.

A man wanders out of the desert not knowing who he is. His brother finds him, and helps to pull his memory back of the life he led before he walked out on his family and disappeared four years earlier. 

Address: Research and Publication Centre (RPC), 2nd Floor, 65 Main Boulevard Gulberg, Lahore (Next to Standard Chartered Bank, above Indesign Showroom)

The screening will be followed by an informal discussion. All friends are welcome. Tea will be served.

Rashed Rahman

Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)

Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook).

Filmbar screening of Shyam Benegal's "Ankur" (1974) at RPC on Friday, January 31, 2025 at 5:00 pm sharp

Filmbar screening of Shyam Benegal's "Ankur" (1974) at the Research and Publication Centre (RPC), on Friday, January 31, 2025 at 5:00 pm sharp.

In a small Indian village, a destitute woman's barren, alcoholic husband absconds after stealing toddy. Alone to fend for herself, she ends up relying on the affections of her landlord's to-be-married son who recently returned to look after the estate.

This screening is a tribute to Shyam Benegal, a giant of Indian parallel cinema who passed away last month. He was known for being a bold storyteller and brutally honest about social issues. He never cared about commercial success and made extraordinary films about ordinary people and their everyday lives. He had a crucial role in launching the careers of many arthouse greats like Naseeruddin Shah, Om Puri and Shabana Azmi. "Ankur"  was his debut film and a wonderful critique of the caste system, an evil that haunts us to this day.

Join us in celebrating the legacy.

Address: Research and Publication Centre (RPC), 2nd Floor, 65 Main Boulevard Gulberg, Lahore (next to Standard Chartered Bank, above Indesign showroom).

The screening will be followed by an informal discussion. All are welcome. Tea will be served.

Rashed Rahman

Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)

Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)