Business Recorder Column August 30, 2022

Water, water everywhere…

 

Rashed Rahman

 

The country lies devastated by unprecedented monsoon rains and floods. Over half of Pakistan is under water, leaving desperate victims without hearth, home, food, medicine or any other needed goods and services. Over 30 million (approximately 15 percent of our population) are affected, millions stranded without a way through the raging torrents and no sign or hope of relief. Whatever rescue and relief efforts have been mounted appear woefully inadequate to the scale of the task. Appeals to the rich to donate to relief efforts have yet to evoke a significant response. International aid is a mere trickle so far, given the west’s obsession with the Russia-Ukraine war.

Admittedly, the scale of the monsoon this year has beggared the imagination. In some areas, estimates speak of four times the normal amount of rain. Given this catastrophe, it would be unrealistic to expect the infrastructure, homes, cattle, crops and human lives not to be swept away in the deluge. However, there is an element of man-made disaster to this natural calamity.

First and foremost, even after the 2010 floods and this year’s repeated warnings of a heavy monsoon, no disaster preparations were evident. The country was too busy, engrossed in the futile verbal duel between the two sides of the political divide. Even after the ‘perfect storm’ struck, it took the federal government days to declare a national emergency. Tours of the devastated areas by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa seemingly have yielded little beyond empty assurances of rescue, relief and rehabilitation. Frankly, if the 1,000 dead, 30 million people affected, Rs 10-15 billion economic losses (and counting) are accepted as interim estimates, the true scale of the disaster will only be known when all parts of the country, including those areas that were ‘unreachable’ to begin with, are in a state where accurate assessments can be carried out.

When the 2010 floods struck (and the current ones are much worse), it was reasonable to assume that the government/s would learn from the experience. Yet once again we see the same ad hoc, inadequate response in terms of rescue, relief and (in future) rehabilitation. Clearly the National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) and the provincial disaster management agencies now run the risk of themselves being dubbed ‘disasters’, with precious little ‘management’ in evidence.

In many parts of the country, unbridled, unplanned (or against the declared plans) development of housing and commercial properties on the banks of rivers and streams has yielded spectacular pictures of big and small buildings collapsing and being swept away by the raging, undeniable torrents. Storm water drains in cities, arguably already inadequate, yielded their share of overflowing water because of the choking by solid waste. Not only rural areas, even urban ones presented the spectre of water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink.

At a time of such a huge natural (and man-made) calamity, it would be reasonable to expect everyone to put other matters aside and focus on the huge task at hand. But at least Imran Khan initially refused to do fund-raising for the flood victims since, he argued, it would detract from his ongoing fund-raising for more cancer hospitals and universities (philanthropic efforts that could, with hindsight, be considered the foundation for his subsequent political career). Later, perhaps because of negative feedback to this indifference towards the suffering of millions of our people in favour of a partisan political agenda, Imran Khan has reversed himself and announced a telethon to raise funds for the flood victims on August 29, 2022.

Nawaz Sharif has sensibly advocated a suspension of political activity in favour of efforts to help the helpless to the extent humanly possible. Maryam Nawaz has come out of her recent repose to start touring the affected areas and people, in Punjab to begin with. The flood victims’ woes are not confined to lack of shelter, food, drinking water and medicine. They are now threatened by waterborne diseases of all descriptions. There are heart rending reports of desperate people being forced to drink flood water, which will no doubt take a toll on their health and wellbeing.

The fallout of the disaster (continuing as these lines are being written) fairly boggles the mind. In a Pakistan in which the people were already groaning under 44 percent annual inflation, the disruption caused by the floods to agricultural crops’ supply promises price rises that will be followed by starvation for the poorest who will not be able to afford the astronomical cost of items crucial to daily existence.

The worst affected province appears to be the least developed – Balochistan. Fourteen dams have reportedly burst, reducing the majority of the province’s areas into seas of seemingly endless water. Roads, rail, gas pipelines, all have been swept away or damaged. The poorest of our people, the Baloch, seem poised to bear the greatest pain. But this takes nothing away from the devastation confronting the populace from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to Sindh. The wails and cries of the survivors desperately looking for help and succour should rob us of repose and impel us to do whatever we can for as many as possible to help them survive this climate change-induced catastrophe.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Business Recorder Column August 23, 2022

Imran Khan’s political future

 

Rashed Rahman

 

The noose of political annihilation appears to be tightening around the neck of Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) party. Considering the exposure of the party’s foreign (prohibited) funding by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) (after eight years!), the Toshakhana shenanigans, Shahbaz Gill’s statement encouraging mutiny in the armed forces, and the increasingly shrill, frustrated escalation of statements damaging to the PTI as a whole and Imran Khan personally, this outcome looms increasingly large.

Imran Khan started his campaign to be restored to power by both criticising and wooing (sometimes in the same breath) the establishment. His evident growing frustration is an indication that his overtures are not yielding positive results and his castigation is deepening the gulf that opened up between him and his erstwhile ‘selectors’ in 2021 over the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief affair to begin with.

And yet both in the ruling coalition’s ranks as well as the establishment, there appears to be so far an inexplicable hesitation to take the final step/s to knock out Imran Khan politically. The ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) led coalition seems divided on the issue. The by now well known differences within the PML-N between party head Nawaz Sharif and his brother and present Prime Minister (PM) Shahbaz Sharif over the no-confidence move against Imran Khan’s government (brought to power, it needs to be remembered, in a controversial if not rigged general election in 2018) have produced a perception gap between London and Islamabad. Nawaz Sharif continues to hold to his view that the move was a mistake, since it cast the incompetent, proto-fascist PTI in a kindlier light as a ‘victim’, while landing the PML-N-led succeeding government with the debris of the PTI government’s economic, political and social mess.

The PML-N coalition government, despite its best efforts, has failed to match the rhetoric of Imran Khan, at least in the public’s perception. But despite the size of the PTI’s public rallies, it is open to question whether this represents the hardcore urban middle and upper-middle class base of the party exclusively or is a sign of expansion of support. Maryam Nawaz’s ‘heroic’ attempts to virtually single-handedly compete with PML-N rallies have turned out to be an unequal and exhausting quest.

The ruling coalition is divided on the issue of arresting Imran Khan. Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) co-chairperson Asif Ali Zardari is against it (for fear of it boosting Imran Khan’s political status) while Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman seems undecided, to name the two major components of the ruling coalition apart from the PML-N. All coalition partners seem apprehensive to a greater or lesser degree that even a lawful action against Imran Khan may blow up in their faces in the event of a political resistance mobilisation by the PTI against the arrest of their leader.

The establishment harbours its own reservations on the issue, not the least because of the alleged support for Imran Khan within the ranks of serving and retired military officers. Although Imran Khan belligerently attacked the so-called ‘neutrals’, federal police high-ups and the female magistrate who granted Shahbaz Gill’s physical remand, he could not be arrested under terrorism charges because he stayed incognito and managed his pre-arrest bail. This shows the privileged, kid gloves treatment being meted out to the former PM, something few others in Pakistan could even dream of.

In this political fray and confrontation, the Centre (under the ruling coalition) is pitted against two provinces, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) (held now by the PTI and allies). Questions of jurisdiction, relative powers, etc., have emerged between the two sides of this troubling coin. This tug of war between the Centre and two major provinces has troubling connotations for the federation, now and in times to come, because of the bad precedent on display these days. Leaders of one side escape to Punjab or KP to avoid arrest by the Central government and its law enforcement machinery, while leaders of the other side abandon Punjab for Islamabad on the same consideration. So much for the rule of law, a long time threatened species in Pakistan.

It is mind-boggling to consider that Imran Khan, Shahbaz Gill and sundry other PTI loudmouths consider themselves so far above the law that they think they can incite mutiny and threaten the establishment and judiciary without suffering the adverse consequences even the blind can see. The hesitation of the federal government and powerful establishment alluded to above may have reinforced this sense of undue entitlement within the PTI. In our history, people have been hung out to dry, and worse, for far less. How long this kid glove treatment will continue is a question only the powers-that-be are in a position to answer.

For the people of Pakistan, faced with the unenviable choice between a proto-fascist party (PTI) and the old guard parties (PML-N, PPP, JUI-F, et al), all of whom have by now been tried and tested and none of whom has evidenced any genuine concern for the plight of the poor, marginalised and deprived, the logic of moving beyond this paradigm in which they appear to be trapped seems unassailable. However, the reality of the difficulties and obstacles in the path of this desired development are nothing less than daunting. That is precisely why greater effort and strategic cohesion is required from the progressive, genuinely democratic political forces in the country to offer a more hopeful future than the current choice between the lesser of two evils (the ruling coalition) and an unmitigated disaster (PTI).

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Business Recorder Column August 16, 2022

Those who do not learn from history…

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Pakistan’s 75^thIndependence anniversary has just passed. As usual, the day produced much flag-waving and exhortations regarding how we live in the most wonderful country on earth. For the rich and comfortable, this luxury is affordable. But for the vast majority – the poor, marginalised, deprived of rights – there is precious little to celebrate in the present, and much to fear in the future.

Pakistan came into being on August 14, 1947 as a result of the struggle of a major Muslim minority in undivided India against the real and perceived marginalisation by an overwhelming Hindu majority were India to remain undivided after British colonialism departed. The major responsibility for Partition and its attendant (and in some cases continuing) human tragedies was the inability of the Hindu majority to overcome the ‘divide (on religious lines) and rule’ strategy of the colonialists in the wake of a united armed uprising by all of India in 1857, and accommodate the Muslim minority’s concerns on just, democratic lines. The wisdom that should have attended the majority community’s approach to and sensitive treatment of a considerable minority was conspicuous by its absence. These attitudes even turned the erstwhile ‘Ambassador of Hindu-Muslim Unity’ (none other than Mr Jinnah) into an advocate not only of Muslim rights, but eventually a flag-bearer of a separate state of Pakistan.

Neither side of the pre-Independence divide anticipated, or was prepared for, the communal frenzy that broke out on both sides of the newly demarcated borders of the new two states. The departing British, despite having the military, law enforcement and administrative means at their disposal to avert, or at least minimise, the communal slaughter, simply washed their hands of any responsibility, thank you Lord Mountbatten. This parting ‘gift’ from British colonialism has never been accounted for in any satisfactory, judicious and fair manner. The result of this neglect of responsibility by the colonialists has been an unremitting current of hostility between the two states, further fuelled by the unresolved tragedy of Kashmir.

Having ‘dispensed with’ the dead bodies and displaced of the greatest human migration in history, both Pakistan and India embarked on their independent life in contrasting ways. Whereas India adopted a secular, democratic parliamentary system, Pakistan wrestled with an authoritarian military-bureaucratic oligarchy soon after the departure from this troubled world of the Quaid-e-Azam. This Pakistani oligarchy has been more or less dominant to this day, even if it has evolved new, more subtle, indirect ways to maintain its hegemony. India, on the other hand, has succumbed to the logic of Gandhi’s appeal to traditional Hindu culture and practices to mobilise the masses during the independence struggle, which Mr Jinnah rejected and was forced to leave Congress after being heckled for it. Gandhi’s approach inadvertently opened the doors to Hindutva nationalist revanchism. This tendency, nestling within the bosom of the independence struggle, has finally brought the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) to power through its ‘parliamentary’ face, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

While the plight of Muslims and other religious minorities in India is an ongoing abomination, Pakistan’s story turns on the hegemony of the military-bureaucratic oligarchy inherited from colonialism. This hegemony produced denial of democracy, absence of respect for, and inclusiveness of, the diverse nationalities inhabiting the new state. It at best produced an economic (capitalist) development model that facilitated the elite capture evident today, to add to the landowning elite bequeathed by colonialism. The people as a whole were deprived of political, economic and social rights, belying the hopes attendant on the new dawn of freedom. The federal structure of the state, having passed through the abomination of One Unit, failed to provide their due rights to its constituent units, resulting eventually in the breaking away of East Pakistan in 1971 when even its clean victory in the 1970 elections was blasted away by a cruel military crackdown bordering on genocide. India may have taken advantage of our interval strife to intervene and severe the eastern wing, but the basic fault lies within us.

Such a major setback, in which the majority of our people (East Pakistan) broke away to re-emerge on the world stage as Bangladesh, should have imparted critical lessons. But since the whole tragedy has been pushed under the carpet and forgotten, there is no evidence that any lessons were learnt. The most important of these lessons should have been that people cannot be driven into ‘paradise’ at the point of a bayonet. But in the remaining post-1971 Pakistan, a new popular dispensation under Zulfikar Ali Bhutto reverted to the old authoritarian ways and resorted to military action in Balochistan (NWFP supporting in solidarity) in 1973 that arguably eventually swallowed up Bhutto and his regime at the hands of a strengthened military.

Ziaul Haq’s 11-year dark night left Pakistan’s polity and society twisted in unprecedented ways in the name of ‘Islamisation’. The Afghan adventures not only shattered our neighbour, its internal fallout yielded the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), conspicuously resurgent again as we speak. The civilian rule turn by turn by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim league-Nawaz (PML-N) from 1988 to 1999 ended with Musharraf’s coup. Military rule lasted almost nine years (till 2008) to add to the 10 years of Ayub (1958-69), three years of Yahya (1969-71) and 11 years of Zia (1977-88). The unequal battle between the civilian political forces and the military-bureaucratic oligarchy has yielded mixed results, with little or no certainty about the future.

Part of this uncertainty about the future resides in the current struggle between the coalition government at the Centre led by the PML-N and a post-overthrow, resurgent Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI). Although the noose is tightening around the PTI’s neck because of the foreign funding disclosure, Toshakhana shenanigans, Shahbaz Gill’s unique contribution to an embarrassed PTI’s troubles, and reports of corruption during Imran Khan’s almost four-year stint in power, the government seems unable or hesitant to deliver the knock-out blow because of concerns regarding the split in powerful state institutions regarding their attitude to Imran Khan.

In this precariously poised conjuncture, conflict and trouble remain the only certainty.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Business Recorder Column August 2, 2022

It never rains, but it pours

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Climate change is upon us, if the unremitting monsoon deluge that has drowned almost the entire country is any indication. Balochistan, the poorest province of Pakistan, appears hardest hit by the natural calamity. Our track record indicates that we seem condemned to repeat the folly of never preparing for impending natural disasters even if they have been repeatedly predicted. Even in normal monsoon years, vast parts of the country are flooded. The condition of drainage in our cities and towns, hardly a secret, reasserts itself with a vengeance when the heavens open up. Cities and towns then appear to be lakes and rivers, not urban dwelling areas. Admittedly this year’s monsoon has broken all records. If we are unable to handle normal monsoons, how can we deal with such a massive deluge?

Governments, federal and provincial, trot out their usual modus operandi in such situations. These include aerial surveys by the heads of government and the occasional ground landing to offer platitudes of help, all of which remains a mere drop in the ocean. The victims of such disasters are soon forgotten and left to their own devices to fend for themselves and make do however they can, adding to the sum of misery, poverty and deprivation that defines life for the vast majority in our so-called Islamic Republic.

The heavens, it seems, are not the only source of our current disasters. The ongoing political confrontation between Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) and the coalition government of Prime Minister (PM) Shahbaz Sharif precludes any political stability in the foreseeable future. Parliament is paralysed and less than credible after the former PM Imran Khan, removed from power through a no-confidence motion, opted to instruct his MNAs to boycott and resign from the National Assembly (the latter decision now prompting new Speaker Raja Pervaiz Ashraf to embark upon accepting these resignations in ‘piecemeal’ fashion, starting with 11 so far).

Punjab has gone through extraordinary political convolutions in the last few months, ending finally in Chaudhry Pervez Elahi being anointed as Chief Minister (CM) of the most powerful province. Along the way, the Supreme Court (SC) has been dragged into politics once again and the three-member bench headed by the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Umar Ata Bandial, has acted in a strange fashion. It is an old and venerated convention of judicial systems that if one party expresses a lack of confidence in a judge or a particular bench, the judge or bench in question recuses himself or themselves. Having rejected the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and sundry leading Bar Associations’ request for a full court or at least a larger bench to hear the case against Punjab Assembly Deputy Speaker Dost Muhammad Mazari’s rejection of 10 Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid’s (PML-Q’s) votes on the basis of party head Chaudhry Shujaat’s letter instructing these MPAs not to vote for Chaudhry Pervez Elahi as Imran Khan’s candidate, the SC bench, far from recusing itself, insisted on proceeding with the hearing. The stance of the SC bench resulted in the PML-N and Bar Associations’ counsel recusing themselves instead (through a boycott of the proceedings)! Not a particularly enervating addition to the superior judiciary’s record.

The insistence on a full court or larger bench rested on two contentions. One, this particular bench was perceived to be inclined to favour Imran Khan and deliver a verdict against the PML-N, i.e. one party to the case expressed its lack of confidence in the bench. Two, the seemingly contradictory verdict delivered by the SC in its May 17, 2022 verdict in the presidential reference regarding Article 63A(1)(b), where it upheld Imran Khan’s desire to have the votes of 20 PTI defectors in the Punjab Assembly disregarded, and its July 22, 2022 verdict against Deputy Speaker Dost Muhammad Mazari’s rejection of 10 PML-Q MPAs’ votes as contradictory to the party head’s instructions, needed to be reconciled in the interests of consistency and a clear interpretation of the constitutional Article in question. The fact that both (contradictory) verdicts seemed to benefit Imran Khan has led to charges of bias floating on the surface of the two verdicts. Again, not a very enervating outcome for the respect and dignity of the SC.

As if all this were not enough, the Judicial Commission of Pakistan (JCP) meeting called inexplicably during senior puisne judge Justice Qazi Faez Isa and Attorney General of Pakistan Ashtar Ausaf Ali's absence abroad raised quite a few eyebrows. The five candidates from the high courts suggested by the CJP for elevation to the SC did not find favour with the majority of the JCP meeting, either on grounds of their not being the senior most or inadequate information being available to judge their merit. From media reports, the JCP meeting ended abruptly and acrimoniously when the CJP and some other judges suddenly closed the meeting and left, even before some participants had had their full say! Not very enervating for the respect and dignity of the superior judiciary.

What has been outlined above regarding the superior judiciary and its recent record underlines the perils of the judicialisation of politics, which arguably by now has led to the politicisation of the judiciary, as feared. The damage is to the credibility, respect and dignity of the institution of the judiciary. Wiser counsel is the need of the hour, both in terms of the judicial process as well as the polarised, conflictual state of politics, which threatens further economic pain.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

The August 2022 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out

 The August 2022 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out. Link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com

Contents:

1. Rao Amjad Ali: Pak-US relations: a primer.

2. Dr Maqsudul Hasan Nuri: Differing perspectives on the Russia-Ukrainian War.

3. Book Review: Noam Maggor: Into the muck.

4. Maxine Molyneux, Fred Halliday: Marxism, the Third World and the Middle East.

Rashed Rahman

Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)

Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)

Business Recorder Column July 26, 2022

Gasping for breath

 

Rashed Rahman

 

It proved difficult to put pen to paper today as the whole country waited with bated breath for the Supreme Court (SC) to pronounce on the petition challenging Punjab Assembly Deputy Speaker Dost Muhammad Mazari’s ruling rejecting 10 Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) MPAs’ votes in the run-off election for Chief Minister on July 22, 2022. On Saturday, July 23, the SC bench of three members headed by Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Umar Ata Bandial held the requests of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and top lawyers’ bodies for a full court to hear the case and issues surrounding it in abeyance. On Monday, July 25, the SC bench first postponed a decision on the formation of a full court bench till 5:30 pm, but after the hearing resumed at that time, decided the parties before the court should be heard on the matter first and the issue of formation of a full court bench be decided later. Last reports said the PML-N counsel argued that his case included the reasoning behind the demand for a full court hearing, but if the bench was not inclined to hear this, he would refrain. The court seemed to appreciate this attitude and approach. What may transpire next and how the hearing goes cannot at this point be predicted or commented upon.

What can, however, be dilated upon is a recap of how we got here, what are the implications of the extreme polarisation between the two sides of the political divide, and where the political and economic crisis may be headed.

Imran Khan’s removal as Prime Minister (PM) in April 2022 through a no-confidence motion marked the start of the present round of political turmoil and instability, which further roiled a struggling economy bequeathed by the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government’s mishandling of the economy. During the no-confidence drama, the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly (NA) betrayed their partisanship towards Imran Khan by the former refusing to preside over the session and the latter dismissing the no-confidence motion on the basis of a trumped up foreign conspiracy. This conspiracy theory has fortunately been finally shot down by the superior judiciary.

Since his fall, Imran Khan has gone on the warpath against his political foes (now in office) and (off and on) the establishment. Ironically, the way things have developed since in terms of the daily barbs hurled at each other by the PML-N-led ruling coalition and the PTI, one is left scratching one’s head about the emerging trend of both sides ‘wooing’ the establishment, yet not hesitating to criticise it if things go against their will. While the establishment has been maintaining an enigmatic silence, reports have now surfaced of a ‘soft intervention’ to persuade the warring politicians to sit down calmly and find a political solution that helps bolster the teetering economy.

If we cast a glance back at our history, it seems the more time passes and things change in Pakistan, the more they remain the same. From Independence till at least the General Ziaul Haq era (1977-88), the military, bureaucracy, and the ruling elite comprised largely of capitalists and large landowners held the country in thrall to an authoritarian dispensation. But this period also saw firm and principled resistance to this oppressive legerdemain. However, from 1988 to date, while the military did overthrow a civilian democratically elected government (Nawaz Sharif’s) in 1999, it did not declare martial law, unlike past military regimes. It had no need to, as subsequent events that transpired proved. First and foremost, most liberal and some progressive elements bought into the ‘liberal’ image projected by military coup-maker General Pervez Musharraf and jumped like lemmings off a cliff into his lap. Next the SC not only resurrected the so-called doctrine of necessity to justify the coup, it anointed the military dictator with the power to amend the Constitution, without even being asked to do so! The ‘lemmings’ first mentioned eventually came to rue their shortsighted, unprincipled support to General Musharraf, but by then it was too late. The superior judiciary (under CJP Iftikhar Chaudhry) eventually fell out with the military dictator and was ‘dismissed’. Then the right and left combined to turf out Musharraf through the Lawyers’ Movement. The coup de grace to the Musharraf dictatorship however, was the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, for which the self-exiled (with the help of his mother institution) and now reportedly seriously ill former dictator has still to be brought to justice (not to mention the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti, which impelled part of the otherwise traditionally quiescent Bugti tribe to revolt).

I quote these historical facts to point to what we have become: a society of power worshippers and collaborators, with principled, ethical people with integrity being reduced to a threatened species. The current tussle between the factions of the ruling elite appears to make even the prospects of our deeply flawed parliamentary democracy darker and graver. The rumoured split in the establishment in support of one or the other side of the political divide threatens its traditional iron discipline, with even graver implications for the country’s future.

While all the shenanigans of the two sides of the political divide play out daily before our eyes, the people seem to have no say as to their fate or future, nor their troubled present. More than ever, what is needed is a mobilisation of the masses to wrest from this wretched order a new social contract in favour of the people, if not a completely new order in confirmation of the people’s rights.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Business Recorder Column July 19, 2022

An unexpected victory

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) has pulled an unexpected rabbit out of its hat by trouncing the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in the by-elections to 20 seats in the latter’s stronghold of Punjab. The by-elections had been necessitated by the defection of PTI’s 20 MPAs, who voted for Hamza Shahbaz Sharif as Chief Minister (CM) of the province. The final electoral tally was PTI 15, PML-N four, and an independent one. This gives the PTI a simple majority in the Punjab Assembly, allowing it to elect Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, Speaker of the Punjab Assembly and from the PTI’s ally Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), as the CM in a run-off vote on July 22, 2022, as ordered by the Supreme Court.

In retrospect, the reasons for the surprise defeat seem clear, although the implications for the future of the federal coalition government headed by the PML-N’s Prime Minister (PM) Shahbaz Sharif seem forbidding. Looking at the results, the PTI won in all three areas of Punjab – northern, central and southern – evenly distributed at five seats each, implying an irresistible tilt of the voters towards the PTI.

Two critical factors suggest why the PML-N came a cropper and PTI upended all expectations in these by-elections. One, the candidates fielded by the PML-N were all former PTI MPAs who had defected to vote for Hamza Shahbaz as CM. The only exception was one seat in Lahore, where a PML-N candidate won. This outcome implies the voters did not appreciate the PTI defectors standing on PML-N tickets. Within the PML-N at constituency level, there was both resentment and apathy at the tickets being handed out to PTI defectors en masse, with hardly a nod at loyal PML-N workers and leaders at local constituency level. Despite Maryam Nawaz’s campaigning, the PML-N narrative failed to inspire or match Imran Khan’s aggressive, conspiracy theory-laden bluster. There may also be some element of our traditional tilt towards the perceived underdog in any political/electoral contest.

Never one to give up an advantage, Imran Khan persists in his rampage against ‘rigging’ through the state machinery and a ‘totally biased’ Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), all of which he claims the PTI overcame through the efforts of its workers and voters. Throughout the election campaign, Imran Khan had deployed the double-edged sword of alleged rigging and claims of victory, a gambit that covered all contingencies but which now appears silly after the PTI’s sweep. If the ECP was ‘biased’, how did the largely peaceful, fair and free elections, local brawls and controversies notwithstanding, take place? How did an opposition PTI win? Now Imran Khan, fresh from his triumph, is demanding fair and free general elections under a ‘credible’ ECP!

The second critical factor in the PML-N’s defeat is the political cost it was forced to pay by taking hard economic decisions on the IMF’s urging to avoid default and meltdown. Inflation inherited from the PTI’s bad governance was exacerbated by the PML-N’s being forced to raise petrol and energy prices in response to trends in the international market. The reduction in petrol and diesel prices the other day, made affordable by a drop in international prices, proved too little, too late.

Maryam Nawaz and other PML-N leaders have accepted defeat gracefully, although disappointment is writ large on their faces. Both PTI and the PML-N-led coalition are meeting to chalk out their strategy from here on. With three provinces out of its grasp and Sindh under Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) rule, PM Shahbaz Sharif’s federal coalition government is threatened by inability to run the affairs of the federation because of the absence of consensus and the possibility that if three provincial Assemblies are dissolved, a general election looms closer than before. And despite agreement with the IMF, the external aid situation may become more fraught, adding to the weakness of the federal government.

In their deliberations on the situation that has now emerged, the PML-N will no doubt, at the insistence of Nawaz Sharif, reflect with hindsight on the wisdom of removing Imran Khan and his government through a no-confidence motion, thereby inheriting the economic mess the PTI left behind. Nawaz Sharif had argued for letting Imran Khan remain in office till his tenure expired in 2023, pointing out that his incompetence and blundering (including the falling out with his ‘selectors’) would weaken and destroy his credibility, i.e. letting him sink under the weight of his own floundering. This by-election has strengthened that argument to the status virtually of unassailable.

It was PPP co-Chairperson Asif Ali Zardari’s Machiavellian approach to politics that prevailed with Shahbaz Sharif, no doubt leavened by the temptation of prime ministership for himself and the chief ministership of Punjab for his son Hamza. Shahbaz Sharif was also considered more amenable to playing ball with the military establishment. Now events have proved Nawaz Sharif’s political instincts correct. The only party that has suffered in this debacle is the PML-N. The PPP had no major stakes in Punjab, since its presence there is a pale reflection today of its once mighty dominance in the largest (by population) and most powerful province in the country. In passing, let us not forget that it was PML-N that eventually replaced the PPP in Punjab. Whether the by-election loss implies the PML-N has itself been replaced by the PTI in Punjab may be too early to say. The decisions by all sides of the political divide on future strategy will be the best indicator of the direction things may move in the days ahead.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com